1. Nick Fitzgerald struggles
After his worst passing performance as a starter against LSU in Baton Rouge where Fitzgerald threw four interceptions, the senior QB bounced back with two of his most prolific passing days against Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech.
He threw for 240+ yards in both games, completing over 60 percent of his passes in both games, and throwing six touchdowns. He added his customary power running, racking up 195 rushing yards in the two games, and getting the Mississippi State offense off of the ground.
It’s possible that first year head coach Joe Moorhead has found the proper balance between the three yards and a cloud of dust Fitzgerald offense that worked so well under Dan Mullen a year ago, and the more pass-happy offense that Moorhead wants to eventually bring to Starkville.
Fitzgerald withstood calls for his benching after his abysmal performance on the Bayou, and rebounded like you would hope an upperclassmen would when faced with adversity.
The competition stiffens in Tuscaloosa this weekend though, against an Alabama defense that reasserted itself as one of the nation’s best with a shutout in Baton Rouge last weekend. Saban’s defense is hitting its stride and coming into its own, and that could be bad news for Fitzgerald and company.
Nose tackle Quinnen Williams has been one of college football’s best players, and he’ll team with the rest of a talented front-seven and take away Mississippi State’s ground game. That will force Nick Fitzgerald to try and beat Alabama with his arm, and despite his performances in the last two games, history suggests that it is unlikely he will find much success against Alabama’s secondary.
Alabama’s defense ranks sixth on standard downs, per S&P+, which means they are good at keeping opponents off-schedule. They rank 11th on passing downs, and 11th on third down conversion defense, and will be itching to make Fitzgerald pay for taking shots down the field.
I don’t think he will struggle at the same level as he did against LSU, but I do expect it to be a mostly miserable day for the senior QB in Tuscaloosa. He’ll throw at least two interceptions as he is forced to throw more than is comfortable due to Mississippi State playing from behind and struggling to run.