Alabama football prepares for physical matchup with Mississippi State

Alabama football will look to withstand the brutally physical Mississippi State Bulldogs a week after an emotional win over LSU.

Alabama is always faced with a unique challenge the week after a typically physical and emotional matchup with LSU; the team usually waiting on the other side is Mississippi State, a squad full of bare knuckle brawlers who will fight and scratch and claw for 60 minutes of game time. The last team you want to see when you are dealing with nagging injuries is this version of the Bulldogs, as playing them is more akin to a root canal sans novocaine than a football game.

Alabama enters a perfect 9-0, having clinched the SEC’s Western Division with a drubbing of LSU in Baton Rouge a week ago. This team is now battling history as much as it is its next opponent, but currently standing in its way is a Mississippi State team that pushed them to the absolute limit in Starkville last season.

Alabama had to overcome a touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter, with Jalen Hurts hitting DeVonta Smith on a game-winning touchdown with under 30 seconds to play to eke out a win. The close call last year has instilled confidence in a veteran group of Bulldogs that they can finish the job this time around.

Mississippi State enters at 6-3, with a Jekyll-and-Hyde like resume this season. After consecutive disheartening losses to Kentucky and Florida in September, Joe Moorhead’s team bounced back by physically manhandling Auburn. After a poor offensive showing in Baton Rouge, keyed by four Nick Fitzgerald interceptions, State bounced back with emphatic wins over Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech, with their quarterback playing two of his best games of the season as a passer.

Mississippi State came agonizingly close to their first win over Alabama since 2007 a year ago, and would like nothing more than to spoil the Tide’s perfect season.

Can Mississippi State produce an improbable upset in Tuscaloosa? Or will Alabama’s path of destruction claim another victim?

Here’s how you can watch Saturday afternoon’s SEC West matchup in Tuscaloosa:

Date: Saturday, Nov. 10
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
TV: CBS
Live Stream: CBS Sports Live  | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

The keys for both teams are the same: establishing the run game offensively and stopping the run defensively.

With Tua Tagovailoa clearly not 100 percent, and nagging injuries to key contributors such as Jalen Hurts, Najee Harris, and Henry Ruggs III, I expect Nick Saban to want to shorten this game as much as possible by running the football effectively.

I think Alabama was a little surprised last week by how they were able to dominate the line of scrimmage on offense, with their line manhandling the LSU front and opening up holes for the Tide’s rushing attack to rack up 281 yards on the ground. They’ll hope to find similar success against Mississippi State, although the Bulldogs’ defensive line presents an even more strenuous challenge than did LSU.

On the flip side, Mississippi State will need to establish the run so as not to put too much pressure on Fitzgerald as a passer. They’ll want to dominate the time-of-possession and shorten the game in their own right to keep Tua on the sideline as much as possible. If they can crack out four and five yard runs consistently with Fitzgerald and qunning back Aeris Williams, then the Bulldogs will be able to do just that.

It will be tough sledding against an Alabama defensive front that is beginning to hit its stride. The Tide allowed just 12 net rushing yards against LSU last week, and will invoke a similar gameplan this week to try and force Mississippi State to throw the ball.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Point Spread: Alabama -24
Over/Under: 53

Prediction

I don’t think Alabama is as physically drained as they usually are coming out of LSU week, after dispatching the Tigers with relative ease a week ago. I do still expect Mississippi State to present a challenge, potentially a far greater one defensively than LSU did, despite the hype being much lower. Alabama’s offensive line has been as good as any in the nation this season, but this will be their toughest test to date as they attempt to control the line-of-scrimmage against Jeffery Simmons, Montez Sweat, and the rest of a talented and experienced Bulldogs defensive line.

I’m expecting an ugly game for a while, but I don’t see Mississippi State finding enough offensive success to make this one all that interesting. I expect a close-ish game in the first half, but for the Crimson Tide to pull away in the second half as they begin to wear down the State defense.

Final Score: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 13