Texas football looks to rebound at Texas Tech in Week 11
Texas football is riding a two-game losing streak that has curbed the optimism that came from a fast start. Can the Longhorns bounce back in Lubbock?
After a disheartening season opening home loss to Maryland, Texas recovered quickly and reeled off six consecutive wins to jettison up to No. 6 in the AP Poll. Since that lofty ranking that signaled the customary “Texas is back!” reactions, Tom Herman’s Longhorns have dropped back-to-back Big 12 tilts in agonizing fashion.
After a furious late rally fell short in a three-point loss to Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Texas, with a seven point lead, watched West Virginia’s Will Grier throw an immaculate 33-yard touchdown pass to Gary Jennings, and then Dana Holgerson made the call to go for two and the win with just seconds to go. Grier coasted in on a perfectly called quarterback draw to sink the Longhorns.
The loss puts Texas’ Big 12 title hopes in serious doubt. They’ll have to win out from here, and then hope West Virginia knocks off Oklahoma on the final weekend of the regular season to springboard them into Dallas. First, though, they have to go to Lubbock and battle Texas Tech in what will be a difficult game.
Texas Tech is riding their own two-game losing streak that also likely ended their own hopes of making a surprise run to Dallas for the Big 12 Championship. At 5-4, some early season optimism has begun fading away, but this Red Raiders team has shown improvement from a year ago — they’ve just been caught running in place due to some unfortunate and ill-timed injuries.
Freshman QB Alan Bowman is, at last report, still hospitalized from a partially collapsed lung he suffered against Oklahoma — his second such occurrence this season. Star linebacker Dakota Allen is unlikely to play this weekend, either, due to a broken hand and a knee injury he suffered against the Sooners last week.
Can the Red Raiders rally together without arguably their two best players and beat Texas for a second year in a row? Or will the Longhorns right the ship and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive?
Here’s how you can watch Saturday night’s Big 12 matchup in Lubbock:
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Date: Saturday, Nov. 10
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lubbock, Texas
Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium
TV: FOX
Live Stream FOX Sports Go | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
For Texas, the game plan changes significantly from Bowman at QB to Jett Duffey. Duffey isn’t the polished passer Bowman is, but he provides his own set of challenges for defenses with his creativity and shiftiness as a runner.
Kliff Kingsbury does well calling the game to Duffey’s strengths, so the Longhorns must be ready for a more run-heavy offense from the Red Raiders than they are used to. They’ll want to keep Duffey contained in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm. He’s not a bad passer, per se, but he’s more likely to make you pay with big plays with his legs than with his arm.
Texas Tech will hope their defense can stiffen up and come up with some timely turnovers to give themselves a shot at earning a second straight win over the hated Longhorns. That’ll be easier said than done without their leader, Dakota Allen, but the Red Raiders have performed well on third downs and in the redzone defensively. They rank 30th in the third down conversions, and 33rd in redzone defense.
It will be imperative that they get off the field on third downs, and force Texas into redzone field goals. The Longhorns, in their own right, struggle in the redzone offensively, ranking 108th in the country and netting points on just 78 percent of their trips inside the opposing 20.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
Point Spread: Texas -1.5
Over/Under: 63.5
Prediction
At full strength, I would be confidently taking Texas Tech to knock off Texas here; I’m guessing Kingsbury’s crew would even be favored to do so with it being a home game. As is, there’s just too many uncertainties at the moment in Lubbock. Their two most important players are hurt and unlikely to play, and that’s too much to overcome against this opponent.
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Look for another big day from quarterback Sam Ehlinger as he finds holes in a Texas Tech secondary that ranks 124th against the pass. I expect a back-and-forth game for most of the evening, but I see Duffey making a critical mistake late that allows the Longhorns to hold on to the win.
Final Score: Texas 37, Texas Tech 34