UCF Football: Will Navy be able to test Knights?

UCF football tries to make it 22 wins in a row against Navy. Do the Midshipmen have any chance to put an end to the winning streak on Saturday in Orlando?

UCF is currently the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s estimation. For the second straight year, the Knights are the favorite to earn the automatic bid into a New Year’s Six bowl game given to the top mid-major team in the country. Despite being just one of four remaining unbeaten teams, though, the Knights were ranked just No. 12 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

When it comes to allowing yardage, the UCF defense has struggled this year. But the Knights, while prone to bending, have not been broken nearly as much as last year’s group. UCF lives up to its billing as an offensive juggernaut, ranking as the sixth-highest scoring team in the country. But they are also a top-25 unit in scoring defense.

That will be critical when UCF squares off against Navy on Saturday.  The Midshipmen once again operate with a ground-focused option scheme that yields eight more minutes of possession than Navy’s opponents. It has done little to help the Midshipmen on the scoreboard, as they are guaranteed to miss a bowl game for just the second time since 2002.

On average, the Middies give up 11 more yards per game than they manage to put on the scoreboard. Ken Niumatalolo‘s team ranks third nationally in rushing, as they rack up more than 285 yards per game. And only Northwestern is more disciplined, as Navy averages fewer than four penalties a game for around 30 lost yards.

Does Navy have any shot of ending the nation’s longest scoring streak on Saturday morning?Here’s how you can watch the AAC contest between No. 12 UCF and Navy:

Date: Saturday, Nov. 10
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Venue: Spectrum Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Against one of the top rushing attacks in the country, UCF needs to be far better at stopping the run. The Knights rank 94th in rushing defense this year, giving up an average of just over 188 yards per game on the ground. The Midshipmen will get their yardage, but UCF needs to make them work for it and prevent Navy from gaining large chunks of field position at a time.

Navy, meanwhile, is tied with Maryland as the top-ranked red zone offense in the country. Yet they are just 97th in scoring this year. To have any shot against a team with one of the best scoring offenses and scoring defenses, the Midshipmen need to get into the red zone with greater frequency and put points on the scoreboard each time they get there.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: UCF -25
Over/Under: 63

Prediction

Playing at home on Saturday, UCF is a 25-point favorite against the Midshipmen. Navy will struggle to keep pace with one of the country’s most prolific offenses, and Josh Heupel‘s team is going to nab their 22nd win in a row across two seasons and two head coaches. They will blow out the spread, and score the majority of the points to go over the total points line.

Final Score: UCF 55, Navy 17