USC football must get back on track with win over Cal in Week 11

California and USC football both sit with five wins apiece. Who will emerge bowl-eligible on Saturday night when the Trojans and Golden Bears meet?

USC has won 14 straight games against California, a streak that is indicative of the broader dominance in the century-long series by the Trojans. Clay Helton’s squad will host the Golden Bears on Saturday night in the 99th meeting between the flagship public school and one of the most well-known private institutions in the state.

It has been a trying year for the Trojans as they adjust to life after Sam Darnold. With the quarterback’s departure for the NFL, USC has struggled to replicate the passing attack they enjoyed the past few seasons. Far from the dominant units of the past, the Trojans rank a coincidentally parallel 74th in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

Their opponents on Saturday, California, have started to turn the corner in the increasingly competitive Pac-12 North. The Golden Bears are on pace to reach their first bowl game in three years, needing only one more win in their final three games to meet the mark.

Cal has been successful this season thanks to a defense that has bailed them out on several occasions. The Golden Bears have held five of their nine opponents under 20 points, and they currently rank 31st in the FBS in scoring defense and 19th in yards allowed. A top-25 secondary, coupled with a solid rushing defense, has done a great job of limiting options for their opponents.

One of these two teams will become bowl eligible when #Pac12AfterDark action plays out on Saturday night. Here’s how you can watch the interdivisional duel between USC and California:

Date: Saturday, Nov. 10
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Location: Los Angeles, Calif.
Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

USC needs to do more with their trips to the red zone. The Trojans rank 105th in the country in scoring once they get inside an opponent’s 20, putting points on the scoreboard less than 80 percent of the time. They also need to be more disciplined, as the Trojans currently rank in the bottom dozen teams in the FBS in terms of penalties and penalty yards lost per game.

As a five-point underdog, California has also struggled in the red zone, both when they have the football and when their opponents reach the 20 of the Golden Bears. Generating fumbles would go a long way toward opening a path toward an upset bid, and better ball control all around on offense will help keep things close.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: USC -5
Over/Under: 47.5

Prediction

California is going to pull off the surprise of the evening, winning not just against the spread but outright on the road. The Golden Bears defense will make the difference, as USC coughs up several drive-killing turnovers and fails to generate enough points to win at home. There will be plenty of celebrating in Berkeley as Cal reaches bowl eligibility for the first time since 2015.

Final Score: California 29, USC 28