Iowa State Football: Texas stands in way of Cyclones’ Big 12 title hopes
Both Texas and Iowa State football are lurking in the Big 12 Championship race, with Saturday’s matchup serving as an elimination game.
At 5-2 in conference, Iowa State and Texas sit in a tie for third place behind Oklahoma and West Virginia in the Big 12. Both teams have a path to Dallas for the Big 12 Championship game.
For Iowa State, the Cyclones sit near the top of teams you do not want to play right now. Since turning to freshman quarterback Brock Purdy, Iowa State is 5-0, and stands as the lone team to knock off West Virginia this season.
If the Mountaineers stumble this weekend against Oklahoma State or next weekend against Oklahoma, and Iowa State beats Texas and Kansas State, then the Cyclones would face Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.
An interesting subplot is that Iowa State currently has a game scheduled against Incarnate Word on the same day as the Big 12 Championship Game. They wanted to get a 12th game after their season opener against South Dakota State got cancelled, thinking it might be important for bowl eligibility. Now, Iowa State might have to frantically try and cancel the game in order to play in the conference championship instead.
For Texas, the Longhorns survived a furious rally in Lubbock last week to defeat Texas Tech and snap their two game losing streak. Texas remains as the only team to knock off Oklahoma this season, and if they can beat Iowa State this weekend and Kansas next, and Oklahoma loses to either Kansas or West Virginia, then Tom Herman would have his ‘Horns playing for the Big 12 title.
Even if those scenarios don’t play out the way these schools hope, both Texas and Iowa State, sitting at No. 15 and No. 16, respectively, in the committee’s rankings, are firmly in the race for a New Year’s Six bowl game. A loss by either here would knock them out of contention for both.
Here’s how you can watch Saturday night’s game between the Cyclones and Longhorns
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Date: Saturday, Nov. 17
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Austin, Texas
Venue: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium
TV: Longhorn Network
Live Stream: FuboTV
Keys to Victory
Iowa State will have to go without star running back David Montgomery for the first half of this game due to his role in a fight in the Baylor game last week. That means Matt Campbell will have to lean even more on Purdy, as the Cyclones look to take advantage of a beleaguered Texas secondary that ranks 117th in the nation in passing yards allowed. Junior receiver Hakeem Butler has established himself as one of the nation’s best receivers, and he’ll provide a plethora of issues for Texas on Saturday night.
Texas will need to maintain balance offensively to keep the chains rolling against an aggressive Iowa State defense. The Cyclones give up only 109 yards per game on the ground, but it will be imperative that the Longhorns open up rushing lanes for Keaontay Ingram and Tre Watson. Iowa State has cornered the market on shutting down pass happy offenses, baffling the likes of West Virginia and Texas Tech already this season. If Texas can’t establish at least somewhat of a ground game, it could be a long night for Sam Ehlinger.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Texas -3
Over/Under: 46.5
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Prediction
This is a toss-up game, and Vegas agrees with Texas getting the customary three points for being the home team. I think the difference in this game will be Iowa State’s defense, which has acquitted itself nicely against the upper echelon offenses of the Big 12 repeatedly this season. I expect they’ll make enough plays defensively, and Brock Purdy will string together a big performance through the air and on the ground, as the Cyclones position themselves for a spot in the Big 12 Championship, and a berth in the New Year’s Six.
Final Score: Iowa State 27, Texas 24