Nebraska football look to keep the ball rolling against Michigan State after running all over Illinois. Can the Huskers continue their winning ways?
Nebraska has an unfortunate start to their season and had they not missed out on their season opener against Akron or lose Adrian Martinez for a multiple game stretch then they are likely looking to clinch a bowl in these last few weeks. The team is a completely different unit with Adrian Martinez on the field rather than when he’s off and it’s not hard to see why when you see the kid play.
With one of the roughest schedules a freshman could ever encounter, Martinez has scored 22 total touchdowns in nine games and has gone over 70 yards on the ground four times. For a Mobile quarterback that has had to go up against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, he has been able to be efficient through the air with a 66 percent completion percentage and has a pass efficiency rating of 148.3 which is top 35 in the nation.
The offense plays next level with the Freshman from Fresno, California and the rest of the offense plays on a completely different level when he’s on the field. The offense as a whole has only produced less than 400 yards of offense in any game twice and that came against Troy and Michigan. Martinez left the game against Colorado a week prior to the matchup against Troy with an injury and played banged up against Michigan. Since then, The Huskers have produced an average of 537 yards of offense per week and look to be in a good spot on that side of the ball going into a matchup against one of the stingiest run defenses in college football.
Michigan State hasn’t had a ton of success on offense this season (and if you’re curious about my thoughts as to why then check out my takeaways from last weekend’s game against Ohio State), but their defense has been one of the best in the nation at stopping the run and that’s what makes this matchup against Nebraska so interesting. The Spartan defense gives up an average of 76.5 rushing yards to opposing teams and absolutely shut down JK Dobbins of Ohio State last week and held him to two yards per carry on 14 attempts which is the worst single-game average of his career.
Michigan State has also given up the tenth least touchdowns nationally while Nebraska has scored the 27th most nationally. The Spartans defense has given up the least total rushing yards nationally while Nebraska has produced the 22nd most total rushing yards nationally.
Can Michigan State take out the heart of the Husker offense? Or will Nebraska pick up a huge win at home?
Date: Saturday, November 17, 2018
Time: Noon ET
Location: Lincoln, NE
Venue: Memorial Stadium
TV: Fox
Live Stream: Fox Sports Go
Keys to Victory
Nebraska has the 102nd ranked scoring defense, 90th ranked rushing defense, 101st ranked pass defense, and 107th ranked total defense in college football. If you’re going to beat Nebraska, you can’t enter Lincoln without some sort of gameplan on offense. Whether it’s Brian Lewerke, Rocky Lombardi or Connor Heyward, someone has to be able to move the ball and score touchdowns. You simply cannot beat this offense by kicking field goals. Another offensive note would be to hold onto the ball as long as possible in order to keep it away from Scott Frost’s high-speed offense.
Nebraska has the luxury of having a Mobile quarterback with an arm. Michigan State’s run defense won’t be easy to move the ball on, but their pass defense hasn’t played up to speed this season. The Spartans give up over 250 passing yards on average to opposing teams and that’s just what Nebraska will have to do to open up the run game. Another important note is that Michigan State’s passing game has a 43.2 percent completion percentage from the last five weeks and has also averaged 3.12 yards per carry on the ground. If Nebraska scores more than 25 they win.
Betting Odds
Points Spread: -2.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Prediction
The matchup between the Nebraska ground game and the Michigan State front seven is one of the best positional matchups in any game all weekend. Nebraska has made a living off of big plays all season long and Michigan State just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Scott Frost offense. Huskers improve to 4-7.
Final Score: Nebraska 31, Michigan State 24