It’s do-or-die time across the nation, and Oklahoma Football is hoping for some chaos to elevate them into the playoff. What are the most likely bowl scenarios for the Sooners?
A three-point loss in Dallas, after a furious comeback led by Kyler Murray, is all that separates Oklahoma from perfection this season. It’s that loss that has the No. 6 Sooners on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff.
This iteration of the Sooners is eerily reminiscent of last season’s team that made the playoff and lost a thrilling Rose Bowl in overtime to Georgia.
QB Kyler Murray has more than filled the void left behind by Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield, and in some ways, the junior signal-caller has actually been better. Murray averages more yards-per-attempt than Mayfield did a year ago, and his QB rating eclipses Baker’s NCAA record last season.
Put that together with Murray being the far superior runner, and it’s crazy to think that Oklahoma has actually upgraded at QB from an all-time season a year ago. A couple of subpar weeks from Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa has brought Murray neck-and-neck in the Heisman Trophy race, and a few big games to finish the season, along with a Big 12 Championship, could see Murray lifting the stiff-arm trophy in New York on December 8.
What could stand in the way of Oklahoma and a trip to the College Football Playoff is the same thing that prevented them from playing for a national title last season: they still field a substandard defense.
The Sooners rank 67th in defensive S&P+, and have given up 40+ points two weeks in a row in close wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The defense will have to perform better, particularly on the road against West Virginia in the regular season finale, and potentially in a Big 12 Championship rematch, if the Sooners want to have a shot at winning the national championship.
Let’s take a look at the three most likely bowl scenarios for Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma: