Oklahoma Football takes on West Virginia in Morgantown with the winner clinching a spot in next week’s Big 12 Championship Game.
A bit of the luster was lost on this much-ballyhooed matchup when West Virginia lost in Stillwater last weekend, but the stakes are even higher now as a result.
A Mountaineers win last weekend would have clinched their spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, meaning West Virginia could lose this game and still play Oklahoma next weekend in Dallas for the Big 12 crown. Instead, the loss means this game is a de-facto semifinal, with the winner advancing to Dallas and the loser staying home, unless Texas suffers an unexpected slip-up at Kansas.
The Sooners hold the Big 12’s only hopes of a playoff bid in their shaky hands at the moment. Oklahoma sits at No. 6, needing an upset this weekend or next to jump into the projected playoff field. Lincoln Riley’s team has continued to struggle defensively, turning games against overmatched opponents into more hotly contested games than they ought to be.
In wins over 5-6 Texas Tech, 6-5 Oklahoma State, and 3-8 Kansas, the Sooners’ average margin-of-victory over the last three weeks is just seven points. Kansas’ Pooka Williams gouged Oklahoma on the ground for over 200 yards last week, and the Jayhawks racked up 40 points, the most they’ve scored in a Big 12 contest since 2010.
West Virginia’s playoff hopes ended in Stillwater last week, although those seemed like a long shot even if they won out. The primary goal of a Big 12 Championship remains fully in sight, a mere home win over the Sooners away from having the opportunity to play for the program’s first Big 12 title.
Can West Virginia clinch a spot in Dallas next week, or will Oklahoma keep their playoff hopes alive and advance to the Big 12 Championship Game for the second year in a row?
Here’s how you can watch Friday night’s showdown in Morgantown:
Date: Friday, November 23
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Morgantown, WV
Venue: Milan Puskar Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
Everyone is aware of the potency of the two offenses, led by Heisman candidates Kyler Murray and Will Grier, but which defense can step up and make a key stop or two that swings what is almost certain to be a wild shootout? A lot has been riding on Murray’s shoulders all season as the Oklahoma defense has been unable to come up with consistent stops. They’ll have their hands full against West Virginia on Friday night. In particular, the Sooners have struggled coming up with stops in the redzone, allowing 32 touchdowns on 37 trips inside-the-20. In a shootout, being able to hold the opposition to field goals is a huge win for your defense. Can Oklahoma do that enough to alleviate a little bit of the offensive pressure?
West Virginia’s defense couldn’t get the key stops when they needed to last week against Oklahoma State as they blew a 10-point lead with five minutes to go. Dana Holgorsen has been willing to roll-the-dice all season long on offense, and did so repeatedly against Oklahoma State last week in fear his defense couldn’t come up with stops. The Mountaineers don’t boast one of the top redzone defenses, either, but they have been better at forcing field goal attempts down there. In 34 opposing redzone trips, their defense has allowed just 22 touchdowns. If they can hold Oklahoma to some field goal attempts, the advantage will swing in their favor.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Oklahoma -2.5
Over/Under: 84
Prediction
There’s not likely to be a ton of defense in this game with the gluttony of weapons each offense possesses, but it will probably come down to which defense can make a critical play; whether that be forcing a field goal or coming up with a big turnover, something like that can easily swing a toss-up game such as this. I trust the Mountaineers defense more than I trust the Sooners to come up with a critical play. Look for West Virginia to come up with that crucial play and clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game, eliminating Oklahoma from playoff consideration in the process.
Final Score: West Virginia 49, Oklahoma 45