Ohio State football looks for style points in Big Ten title vs. Northwestern

Ohio State football will need some style points in their Big Ten Championship Game with Northwestern in order to leap into the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State finally put it all together last weekend against Michigan, humiliating their rival Wolverines to the tune of a 62-39 beatdown that lifted the Buckeyes from No. 10 up to No. 6 in the committee’s rankings.

It’s been a frustrating and controversial season in Columbus, but Ohio State is a mere Texas upset of Oklahoma away, and a win over Northwestern themselves, from getting into the College Football Playoff, a thought that seemed far fetched since a blowout loss to Purdue in West Lafayette.

To even make The Game last week meaningful, the Buckeyes survived a two-point conversion attempt by Maryland two weeks ago to keep their Big Ten Championship hopes alive. They made the most of their opportunity, with Dwayne Haskins eviscerating the No. 1 ranked Michigan defense.

While it will likely take an Oklahoma loss (and an Alabama win) for Ohio State to jump the Sooners and make the College Football Playoff, another blowout win over a ranked opponent could endear the committee enough to jump them into the top four.

The loss to Purdue is an eye-sore, but I’m not sure there is a more impressive win in college football this season than what they did to Michigan last week.

Northwestern rarely gets blown out, though, and the Wildcats have surprisingly made the Big Ten Championship Game after years of close calls. This isn’t a particularly strong Pat Fitzgerald team (they rank 78th in S&P+), but they just kept winning in conference play.

Northwestern went 0-3 in out-of-conference games, including losses at home to Duke and Akron, but rolled through the Big Ten at 8-1, with the one loss a three-pointer to Michigan in a game they led for most of the way.

Can the Wildcats pull a stunner and make their first Rose Bowl since 1995? Or will Ohio State earn the style points it needs to give the committee a tough choice on Selection Sunday?

Here’s how you can watch the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night:

Date: Saturday, Dec. 1
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Indianapolis, Ind.
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: FOX
Live Stream: FOX Sports Go | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Can Ohio State’s defense get off the field and prevent Northwestern from taking the air out of the football? The Buckeyes’ defense has been inconsistent all season, but one thing they have consistently done well is get off the field on third downs — they rank 10th in the country in third down percentage defense, allowing firsts on just 31 percent of them.

The Buckeyes’ main problem has been busted assignments that lead to big plays. They rank 121st in ISOPPP+, and while Northwestern isn’t a particularly explosive offense, any semi-competent QB will take advantage of coverage busts. The Buckeyes need to avoid giving up big plays, and get off the field when they have the opportunity to do so.

Clayton Thorson and the Northwestern offense will hope to own the time-of-possession by playing keep-away from the Ohio State offense and limiting its possessions. Haskins and company can put up points in bunches, and the Wildcats don’t have the firepower to keep up in a shootout. They’ll want to establish an effective ground game with freshman running back Isaiah Bowser, and hope they can grind out the clock and limit the amount of damage Ohio State’s offense can do.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: Ohio State -14.5
Over/Under: 61

Prediction

I don’t expect Ohio State to earn the style points they so desperately crave to lift them to No. 4 if Oklahoma wins. Northwestern is fundamentally sound enough to avoid a blowout, and while I don’t think they will particularly challenge the Buckeyes for the Rose Bowl berth, they should be able to be semi-competitive. I expect a big game from Haskins that clinches his spot among the Heisman finalists in New York next weekend, and for Ohio State to capture their second straight Big Ten Championship, and in the very least book a trip to Pasadena.

Final Score: Ohio State 41, Northwestern 20