Oklahoma Football will try to avenge their lone loss of the season against Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, hoping to clinch a playoff berth in the process.
Michigan’s loss to Ohio State opened the door for Oklahoma to get into the playoff, provided they can handle their business in Dallas and avenge their earlier season loss to Texas.
In October, the Sooners fell behind by three touchdowns to the Longhorns before Heisman hopeful Kyler Murray engineered a furious comeback that ultimately fell short after Sam Ehlinger engineered a drive that culminated in a game-winning kick by Cameron Dicker.
Three Oklahoma turnovers, combined with an inability to get defensive stops, were the impetus for the Sooners loss despite outgaining the Longhorns and averaging just south of 10 yards-per-play.
The defense hasn’t gotten any better in Norman, as Oklahoma has given up 40+ points in four consecutive games to finish the regular season, meaning a couple of turnovers could once again swing a game with few defensive stops.
Prognosticators and advanced metrics are still a little bit tepid on Texas despite the 9-3 record and berth in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Longhorns sit at No. 14 in the committee’s rankings, but are 20th in Sagarin and 35th in S&P+.
While the Longhorns have at times played like a Top 10 team in wins over Oklahoma and Iowa State and a close loss to West Virginia, Tom Herman’s club has flirted with disastrous inconsistency too often this season to be fully trusted.
Along with a home loss to Maryland to open the season, the ‘Horns sport wins over Tulsa, Kansas State, Baylor, and Kansas by a touchdown or less.
Even still, you’d be crazy to think they don’t have a shot in this game, with an offense built to frustrate their Boomer counterparts. They might be in the New Year’s Six regardless of this outcome if Oklahoma is among the Top 4, but the Longhorns would like nothing more than to capture the Big 12 by handing their rivals a second loss, eliminating them from playoff contention in the process.
Here’s how you can watch Saturday afternoon’s Big 12 Championship Game:
Date: Saturday, December 1
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Arlington, TX
Venue: AT&T Stadium
TV: ABC
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
Oklahoma’s offense has been humming all season, with Kyler Murray grabbing the baton from Heisman winner Baker Mayfield and somehow elevating the QB play under Lincoln Riley. Murray’s 2018 season has surpassed Mayfield’s record-breaking 2017, and yet this will be one of the last times we ever see him play football. Murray led the Sooners to 532 yards of offense against Texas the first time around, but the onus will be on taking care of the football in this meeting – Oklahoma was a -3 in turnovers in the first game, with two critical turnovers in their own territory resulting in 10 points for Texas. In a matchup where stops will be such a finite resource, takeaways could swing the game.
Texas used ball control and big receivers Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson to befuddle the Oklahoma defense, and while a midseason coaching change for the Sooners brought some positive changes on that side of the ball, they are right back to that ugly form. The best defense for Kyler Murray is to keep the ball out of his hands, so look for the Longhorns to hammer Oklahoma with Keaontay Ingram and Tre Watson, along with a hefty dose of designed runs for Ehlinger. If they can control the clock and limit possessions for Oklahoma’s offense, they are only a turnover or two away from swinging the game in their favor.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Oklahoma -8
Over/Under: 77.5
Prediction
While Texas does some things that can frustrate Oklahoma, I do think the Sooners are the far superior team, results in their meeting in Dallas in October notwithstanding. Texas will be able to keep the game close by grinding out some clock, but look for Murray and company to take better care of the football this time around and to take full advantage of every opportunity they are given. The Longhorns will keep it close, but Murray hits Marquise Brown for a long fourth quarter touchdown that finally subdues Texas, and earns the Sooners a Big 12 title and likely a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Final Score: Oklahoma 52, Texas 42