College Football Bowl Projections 2018: Predictions ahead of Selection Sunday
The College Football Playoff:
December 29
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
4 or 8 pm ET, ESPN – Miami, Florida
No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
4 or 8 pm ET, ESPN – Dallas, Texas
The rest of the New Year’s Six:
December 29
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Florida vs. UCF
Noon ET, ESPN – Atlanta, Georgia
January 1
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
1 pm ET, ESPN – Glendale, Arizona
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: Ohio State vs. Washington
5 pm ET, ESPN – Pasadena, California
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas
8:45 pm ET, ESPN – New Orleans, Louisiana
Alabama would prefer Dallas against any opponent other than Oklahoma, so my guess is that the committee ends up sending the Tide to Miami to give them a slight geographical advantage.
The final playoff spot comes down to Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia, and UCF, with each having a relatively strong argument for getting the No. 4 spot.
UCF went undefeated for the second consecutive regular season, coming from behind to take down Memphis and capture the AAC crown. Redshirt freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. was brilliant in relief of the injured McKenzie Milton, rescuing the Knights from sure defeat, and clinching a second straight New Year’s Six berth. It’s not going to be enough to put them into the playoff, but they’ll get another crack at proving they belong against a power-five opponent on a big stage.
Georgia went toe-to-toe with the No. 1 team in the country, and led for almost the entire game before Hurts’ rushing touchdown late in the fourth quarter put Alabama up for good. If the argument is for the four “best” teams, then the Bulldogs undoubtedly proved that they are one of them.
Ohio State handled Northwestern to capture the Big Ten, and they sport one of the most impressive wins of the season with their dismantling of Michigan last week in Columbus. The 29-point loss in West Lafayette, however, still sticks out like a sore thumb and is likely to leave the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Oklahoma’s only loss of the season was to Texas by a field goal, and they avenged that with a second chance in Arlington, knocking off the Longhorns 39-27. The Sooners’ much maligned defense looked much crisper with the Big 12 title on the line, and they likely did enough to earn the No. 4 spot and a playoff berth.
As for the rest of the New Year’s Six, it’s pretty cut and dry on which teams are going to be in, but the matchups are still up for grabs.
Ohio State-Washington will be the Rose Bowl and Georgia-Texas will be the Sugar Bowl provided Oklahoma is No. 4. Florida is likely in the Peach Bowl, which leaves LSU for the Fiesta. The final two teams, UCF and Michigan, could easily flip-flop from where I have them. My guess is that the committee will favor a Florida-UCF matchup, even if it means putting the Knights in the Peach Bowl for a second year in a row.
I hate how there’s conference affiliations for New Year’s Six games because both Washington State and Penn State are more deserving than Texas of a bid, but both will end up elsewhere while the four loss Longhorns play in New Orleans.