What must Group of Five teams do to reach College Football Playoff?
By Zach Bigalke
6. Upsets must take place in several Power Five championship games
For Northern Illinois, they were only able to reach a BCS bowl game in 2012 because they finished higher in the final rankings than a champion from one of the automatic-qualifying conferences. When unranked 7-5 Wisconsin took down top-12 Nebraska 70-31 in the Big Ten championship game, and Kansas State took down No. 18 Texas 42-24 in the Big 12 title game, it provided the upsets necessary to boost NIU’s profile.
Had Pittsburgh knocked off Clemson this year for the ACC title, Oklahoma lost to Texas for the Big 12 crown, and Northwestern pulled off the upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, UCF would likely have jumped over the Sooners, Buckeyes, and Wolverines as the two Power Five leagues dropped in perceived strength. (Clemson likely would have remained ahead of the Knights, but that would have been a tougher case to justify.)
In that situation, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Clemson would likely still make the conference championship game. The discussion would then have come down to a two-loss Georgia team that lost its conference and a two-time conference champion on a 25-game unbeaten streak.
In that case the committee would have probably still shut the Knights out of the championship game, given they would have only one statement win over a Power Five opponent. (Had those upsets transpired, UCF would hold a 31-point win over a Pitt team upset Clemson to win the ACC. But with their second Power Five opportunity canceled by a hurricane for the second straight year, the Knights were betrayed by Mother Nature.)
Next. What an 8-team playoff would look like in 2018. dark
At this point, these six requirements must all be in place for a Group of Five opponent to have a legitimate chance at a College Football Playoff berth. Next year, UCF has another chance to test the theory as they prepare for a Fiesta Bowl showdown against LSU.
If they beat the Tigers and enter 2019 with a 26-game winning streak, Power Five statement opportunities against Stanford and Pitt provide the litmus test to assess whether this will be enough to satisfy a selection committee with ever-shifting standards.