Boca Raton Bowl 2018: 5 Bold Predictions for UAB vs. Northern Illinois

2. Northern Illinois bottles up Spencer Brown

UAB’s offense begins and ends with sophomore running back Spencer Brown, who has gone over 1,000 yards rushing in each of his two seasons in Birmingham.

Brown eclipsed 100 yards rushing in six games this season, and the Blazers rode him to a C-USA Championship win. Brown carried the ball 31 times and racked up 156 yards and a touchdown in UAB’s 27-25 win over MTSU.

One need only look at the previous week’s matchup against MTSU to see the difference Brown makes for UAB’s offense. In the first meeting, Brown tallied just a single carry for zero yards as Clark implemented the strategy of resting him in preparation for an already set rematch game the next week. In his absence, UAB netted only 89 total yards and 3 points in a 24-point defeat in Murfreesboro.

Senior QB A.J. Erdely has struggled to keep defenses honest, piloting the 99th ranked passing offense in the country this season, going over 200 yards passing on just three occasions.

Redshirt freshman QB Tyler Johnston III may be a revelation for Clark, though. Johnston has looked strong in filling in for an injured Erdely, and his ability as a dual-threat quarterback could be a difference maker for the offense if the keys are handed to him on Tuesday night. Johnston got the start in the C-USA title game, and threw for 140 yards while adding 56 more on the ground.

Regardless of which QB goes, Northern Illinois’ full attention will be on Brown, knowing that if they can shut him down, UAB’s offense will struggle to move the ball and put up points.

As good as Brown is, Northern Illinois’ defense enters the game giving up just 109.7 yards-per-game on the ground, ranking 14th in the nation.

Look for the Huskies to bottle up the talented sophomore, putting the onus on Erdely or Johnston in the passing game to move the ball for the Blazers.