Boca Raton Bowl 2018: Preview, prediction for UAB vs. Northern Illinois

A pair of Group of Five champions meet in this year’s Boca Raton Bowl. Will C-USA kings UAB or MAC champs NIU claim victory when they face off in Florida?

UAB took down Middle Tennessee in Murfreesboro in the Conference USA championship game, a week after losing to the Blue Raiders in the final game of November. NIU, meanwhile, upset MAC Championship Game favorite Buffalo at Ford Field in Detroit to win their own conference crown.

The reward for both teams was a trip to Florida to face one another in this year’s Boca Raton Bowl. UAB brings one of the top defenses in the country, especially up front. The Blazers rank fourth nationally in sacks, fifth in total tackles for loss, and 10th in the FBS in points allowed. They have been equally good against the run and the pass, ranking in the top 20 nationally in yards allowed by land and by air.

Northern Illinois earned its trip to the Boca Raton Bowl thanks to a similar game plan. The Huskies rank No. 1 in the entire nation in sacks generated, as they average 3.85 per game, and they are also in the top six in total tackles for loss right behind UAB. Rod Carey’s crew has been better at stopping the run than the pass, and they have generated 11 fumble recoveries so far this year.

Which Group of Five conference champion will pull out a victory at FAU Stadium this weekend? Here’s how you can watch the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl between Conference USA champion UAB and surprise MAC winners Northern Illinois.

Date: Tuesday, Dec. 18
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Boca Raton, Fla.
Venue: Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

UAB certainly has its blemishes despite winning 10 games in the regular season. The Blazers have been prone to take a large number of penalties. They’ve allowed four of their kicks to be blocked, and on kickoffs the coverage team struggles to contain opponents. And UAB has also had issues with turnovers, especially throwing interceptions. They must curtail these weaknesses to ensure victory against the Huskies.

NIU, on the other hand, has had major issues keeping the chains moving — especially on third down and fourth down. The Huskies have struggled to move the ball in general, with an offense that has not be great either throwing or running the football. They need the defense to get a couple of turnovers to give that offense as many chances as possible to put points on the board.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: UAB -2.5
Over/Under: 43

Prediction

UAB is going to jump out to a huge lead in the Boca Raton Bowl, taking full advantage of their first bowl trip since 2004 and just the second in school history to claim the program’s first postseason victory. The Blazers will get a couple of critical turnovers off the Huskies, while NIU’s pass rush will force quicker throws and a lot of misdirection running. Look for Bill Clark’s team to make history with the first bowl victory, and to do so in impressive runaway fashion.

Final Score: UAB 38, NIU 22