Birmingham Bowl 2018: Preview, prediction for Memphis vs. Wake Forest

The Memphis Tigers travel down to Alabama to face off against ACC’s Wake Forest in an enticing 2018 Birmingham Bowl matchup.

The Tigers had the game won.

Memphis entered into the AAC Championship Game with a huge edge over the UCF Knights. Central Florida lost star quarterback McKenzie Milton to a gruesome leg injury and even though the Knights survived the War on I-4 against South Florida. It wasn’t a given considering they narrowly escaped Memphis, Tenn.,  with a win earlier in the year.

Memphis entered halftime of the AAC Championship Game with a 38-20 lead over the Knights and Darrell Henderson had four touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Tigers learned the hard way to play all 60 minutes.

Central Florida scored a touchdown on every drive they had in the second half while holding the Tigers to a field goal in the final two quarters. Darriel Mack Jr. finished the game with six total touchdowns and helped the Knights out-gain the Tigers 351-196 in the second half. With Henderson sitting out the Birmingham Bowl to recover from his lingering injuries. Can the Tigers get things going with Patrick Taylor Jr. and Tony Pollard against Wake Forest

Since losing freshman quarterback Sam Hartman to a broken foot Wake Forest has played maddeningly inconsistent football. Jamie Newman, who was named the starter in the preseason before getting injured, took over against Pitt and went 50 percent passing with two interceptions in a loss and followed it up with a four-touchdown performance against a Duke team with a strong front seven and a pro-prospect in quarterback Daniel Jones.

Wake has had some time to heal up and prepare for this matchup and enter as a 3.5-point underdog to Memphis. Can Wake take advantage of Memphis’ losses and take home a Birmingham Bowl win?

Date: Saturday, Dec. 22
Time: Noon ET
Location: Birmingham, Ala.
Venue: Legion Field
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN or FuboTV

Keys to Victory

The good news for Memphis is that they have a deep stable of running backs. Losing Darrell Henderson is huge considering the junior running back has accounted for close to 2,000 rushing yards as well as 25 total touchdowns.

Fortunately, the Tigers have Patrick Taylor Jr. who has accounted for 1,000 rushing yards in his own right behind Henderson this season. Wake Forest fired defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel earlier in the season and are currently ranked 116th nationally in total defense. Memphis has a solid defense, but they have to go out to Birmingham with scoring in mind if they expect to beat the Demon Deacons who rank top 35 nationally in total offense.

Wake Forest needs to focus its defense on stopping the run and give everything it has on offense. The strength of the Memphis offense this season is undoubtedly the run as the Tigers dropped from seventh to 50th in passing offense this season. The Tigers can pass but Brady White hasn’t proven that he can win the big games without Darrell Henderson in the backfield which we’ve seen with losses to Tulane, Missouri and the AAC Championship Game in which the junior back left the game injured.

If Wake can slow down Patrick Taylor Jr. and Tony Pollard and get Jamie Newman rolling like he was against Duke then the Demon Deacons could have a real chance of winning this one handily.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of OddsShark

Points Spread: Memphis -4
Over/Under: 73.5

Prediction

The Birmingham Bowl kicks off one of the better weekends of non-playoff bowl games and should meet or exceed the over given the lack of defense and the potential that both teams have on offense. Memphis lost the AAC Championship Game and Darrell Henderson going into this game and it’s hard to believe that the Tigers are fully motivated entering into this matchup when they had the Knights win streak that close to being snapped.

Final Score: Wake Forest 42, Memphis 38