Houston Football: Armed Forces Bowl preview and prediction vs. Army

Army enters the Armed Forces Bowl on an eight-game winning streak where the Black Knights face a Houston football team that faded down the stretch.

Army already reached 10 wins, setting a new Black Knights record with back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in school history. Now Jeff Monken’s team could become the first 11-win team every to call West Point home. All they need to do is take down Houston, which lost three of their last four games to fall out of American Athletic Conference contention, in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.

This year, Army ranked No. 2 in the country in rushing offense as they averaged 296 yards per game on the ground. The passing game is nearly nonexistent in Monken’s triple-option offense, as Black Knights quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. averages just 86 yards per game through the air. But while they average fewer than 30 points per game, Army also boasts the No. 13 scoring defense in the FBS as they give up only 18 points per game.

Houston has been a strong passing team, though they lost offensive catalyst D’Eriq King to a torn meniscus in the win over Tulane. Now true freshman Clayton Tune is leading the Cougars offense into the bowl game, after going 18-for-43 through the air for 256 yards in the regular-season finale against Memphis. Tune threw three touchdowns and one interception on the road, but it wasn’t enough to book their trip to the AAC title game in Orlando against unbeaten UCF.

Can the Cougars pull it together and take down the Black Knights, or will Monken’s squad continue their historic march through 2018? Here’s how you can watch the Armed Forces Bowl between Houston and Army:

Date: Saturday, Dec. 22
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Houston has had issues on defense, especially with Ed Oliver dealing with injuries over the course of the year. Now the defensive tackle is eschewing the Armed Forces Bowl to begin preparing for the NFL Combine and NFL Draft in the new year. The Cougars need the players who will be in Fort Worth to step up and begin to develop for a future without Oliver wreaking havoc in the middle of the line.

Army has been solid offensively, great defensively, and absolutely abysmal on special teams. They need to do a better job of controlling field position to win the Armed Forces Bowl. That is especially true when they punt, as the Black Knights rank No. 102 in the FBS while averaging fewer than 36 net yards per punt. Things are even worse when Army fields kickoffs, as no team in the FBS ranks lower than the 14.3 yards per kick return averaged by the Black Knights.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: Army -5
Over/Under: 60

Prediction

Army’s defense ranks in the top 20 nationally in passing yards allowed, and they are going to make life difficult for Clayton Tune in Fort Worth. Look for the Black Knights to build up a big lead before halftime, adding another touchdown before Houston claws back the deficit some in garbage time.

Final Score: Army 38, Houston 21