Baylor Football: Bears draw close-to-home matchup with Vanderbilt in Texas Bowl
A pair of surprising bowl teams face off in the Texas Bowl as Vanderbilt takes on Baylor football in Houston with both seeking to end the year on a high note.
Neither Baylor nor Vanderbilt entered the season with much in the way of expectations, and both accomplished their main goal of the season by getting to six wins and earning a bowl invite.
Vanderbilt rode junior RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn to three wins over their last four games to get to bowl eligibility for the second time under Derek Mason after missing out on the postseason last year.
The Commodores played strong down the stretch of the season even in defeats, coming up just short against Florida, Kentucky, and Missouri, losing the triumvirate of games by a combined 22 points.
They earned wins over lowly Arkansas and Ole Miss, and then hammered rival Tennessee in a win-or-stay home matchup in Nashville at the end of the regular season to garner bowl eligibility, preventing the rival Volunteers from doing the same in one fell swoop.
Matt Rhule put together a remarkable turnaround in year two in Waco, taking Baylor from a 1-11 debut campaign to 6-6 and surprisingly gaining bowl eligibility. The Bears started hot, winning three of their first four games before defensive ineptitude sent them spiraling to 2-5 in their next seven games, putting their bowl hopes in serious doubt.
Much like Vanderbilt, Baylor also faced a winner-take-all final game against a rival, with Texas Tech looking for a sixth win as well on the final weekend of the regular season. A big day from sophomore QB Charlie Brewer, as well as some opportunistic turnovers, lifted the Bears to a 35-24 win to get them back to a bowl game after one year reprieve.
A win for Vanderbilt would give Derek Mason his first winning season in Nashville, and the first winning season for the program since James Franklin was on the sidelines in 2013. A win for Baylor would be further validation that Matt Rhule has the program back on the right track.
Here’s how you can watch the Texas Bowl between the Commodores and Bears:
Date: Thursday, December 27
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Location: Houston, TX
Venue: NRG Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
Baylor will hope to make Vanderbilt one-dimensional by shutting down Ke’Shawn Vaughn and the Commodores’ rushing attack. Vaughn came on strong at the end of the season, and got the attention of pro scouts in the process. Vanderbilt is 3-1 in games Vaughn exceeds 100 yards rushing, with the one loss coming by just five on the road at Missouri. Vaughn has averaged seven yards per carry on the season, and he should find some lanes against a Baylor defense that cedes nearly 175 yards-per-game on the ground. If they take away Vaughn, the onus would be on senior QB Kyle Shurmur to make enough plays to keep the offense humming. While he is more than capable, Vanderbilt is just 1-4 in games where he throws 35 or more passes.
On the other side of the ball, can Vanderbilt’s defense manufacture some pressure on Brewer and prevent him from picking them apart? The Commodores have struggled on defense this season moreso than would be expected of a Derek Mason unit, giving up 5.8 yards-per-play. Brewer, with a plethora of weapons led by former Tennessee transfer Jalen Hurd, is more than capable of putting up big numbers against them if he is given a clean pocket. Vanderbilt has struggled to get after the passer all season, ranking 94th in the nation in sacks-per-game, with no single defender registering more than 3.5. Baylor has struggled to keep Brewer upright, giving up over three sacks-per-game in 2018. It’ll be the classic movable force vs. stoppable object battle, and whichever unit comes out ahead could swing the outcome.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Vanderbilt -4
Over/Under: 55.5
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Prediction
This could turn into a pretty interesting shootout, and I’d feel pretty comfortable betting the over here given the weaknesses of each defense. Both units give up nearly six yards-per-play, and will be facing offenses capable of ripping off chunk plays. Baylor has the advantage of the closer proximity to campus with the game being played in Texas, meaning they’ll have a pseudo home field advantage, but Vanderbilt has been the more consistent team, playing their top foes a lot closer. Five of their six losses came against ranked opponents, and each was by 10 points or less. Look for a big day from Vaughn on the ground, and for Shurmur to hit some big plays in his final game with Vanderbilt as they finish the year above .500.
Final Score: Vanderbilt 39, Baylor 34