2. Alabama has a big advantage on third downs
Both offenses rank among the best in the country on converting third downs. Alabama had a porous showing on third downs against Georgia, and that knocked them all the way down to… second in the nation in converting third downs at nearly a 53 percent clip.
Oklahoma is fifth in the country, converting thirds over 51 percent of the time. Each team’s ability to convert third downs is in no small part why these are the two best offenses in the country; you simply cannot get them off the field, even if you have them backed up in third and long situations.
You can’t drop back in coverage too much against either because Kyler Murray will kill you with his legs, and a healthy Tagovailoa, while not as lethal of a runner as Murray, can make you pay immensely for forgetting about that part of his game.
They are both also pinpoint accurate passers, with an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions and offensive lines that don’t give up many pressures, allowing them to stand clean and wait for their receivers to find just an ounce of separation.
The pendulum swings in Alabama’s favor when you look at the other side of the ball. While Oklahoma’s third down offense is terrific, Alabama’s defense has been one of the best in the nation in getting off the field on thirds. The Tide ranks 8th in third down defense, giving up firsts on just 31 percent of those occasions. You have to figure they’ll win a few third down battles and force a couple of punts and field goals.
For Oklahoma, their much beleaguered defense has struggled mightily to get off the field when the rare third down presents itself. The Sooners give up firsts on third downs 45 percent of the time, placing them 113th in the nation.
That bodes well for Alabama’s offense in that as long as they don’t make mistakes, Oklahoma’s defense will have a hard time getting them off the field on drives that don’t end in extra points.