Arizona Bowl 2018: Preview, prediction, live stream for Arkansas State vs. Nevada

Arkansas State heads to the Arizona Bowl to take on Ty Gangi and the Nevada Wolfpack to open up a day packed with College Football Playoff action.

This is why bowl season is just so great. A matchup between two Group of Five offenses with dominant passing games and lackluster defenses to get us in the mood for the most important day of the college football season.

Arkansas State finished up the regular season with an 8-4 record and fell just four points shy of securing their first Sunbelt Championship Game appearance. The Red Wolves ended the season with four straight wins in which their top-20 offense and top-15 passing defense helped them outscore opponents 146-54. Justice Hansen topped 3,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns for the second consecutive season and has had this offense humming since transferring in from Oklahoma in 2015.

The biggest difference maker for the Red Wolves this season is undoubtedly Kirk Merritt. He initially signed with Oregon in 2016 but quickly left the program with concerns of playing time. He transferred to Texas A&M and was expected to play a key role in the Aggie offense before being dismissed from the program due to two counts of indecent exposure that Merritt chocked up to a “bad jock itch“.

After a tenure at Last Chance U’s East Mississippi Community College, Merritt chose Arkansas State over Tulane, Louisiana, UTSA, Troy and Bowling Green and didn’t his gamble pay off. The Destrehan product finished up the regular season with 75 receptions for 939 yards and seven touchdowns (top-five in receptions and receiving yards for a single season at Arkansas State).

Merritt gives the Red Wolves a threat they haven’t had since Seahawks running back J.D. McKissic was at Arkansas State changes the game no matter who the Red Wolves are up against

Nevada enters this game with a bit of misfortune. The Pack ended the season with a loss to the UNLV Rebels who took a huge step back when they lost mobile quarterback Armani Rogers around mid-season but their biggest loss of the season came with the departure of McLane Mannix. He led the team in receiving touchdowns and was on pace to finish as an all-time great Nevada receiver but decided to transfer to Texas Tech due to personal family matters.

The Pack still retain quarterback Ty Gangi and receptions leader Kaleb Fossom along with the matchup problem that is the 6-4 Canadian Brendan O’Leary-Orange who returned midseason from a scary neck injury sustained in a win over Oregon State.

The entertainment factor for this game should be through the roof as everyone sets up for their College Football Playoff viewing parties. Which team comes out on top?

Date: Dec. 29
Time: 1:15 p.m. ET
Location: Tucson, Ariz.
Venue: Arizona Stadium
TV: CBS Sports
Live Stream: CBS Sports Network or FuboTV

Keys to Victory

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have an immediate edge going into this game in their pass defense. Their No. 12 pass defense nationally is headed up by Jamon Dotson and interceptions leader Dameon Barber. Nevada’s offense revolves around the pass and Arkansas State’s pass defense could overwhelm the Wolfpack who just lost their leading scorer in the passing game — Mannix.

Offensively, Justice Hansen will have his work cut out for him against a top 20 Nevada pass defense but has proven time and time again that he is the best offensive player that the Red Wolves have so he and Merritt need to get going early and often.

Nevada will have its work cut out in this one. The Wolfpack will have issues passing the ball without Mannix and that is why O’Leary-Orange must step up. The junior receiver hasn’t produced much this season given his neck injury, but he’s 6-foot-4 and the Red Wolves have no one who can lock down a talented receiver with this much of a height advantage.

Also, Toa Taua should have no problem carrying the load on the ground against the No. 100 rushing defense in college football. In games Arkansas State lost (outside of Alabama), they allowed an average of 240 yards on the ground with three rushing touchdowns. Taua is the key on offense and finding a way to cover Merritt is the key on defense.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of OddsShark

Points Spread: Arkansas State -1
Over/Under: 57.5

Bowl Gift Packages

• Ghostek backpack with a power bank and external USB port
• Beats Buds
• Fire Kindle with built-in Alexa
• Hydroflask
• Cooling Towel
• Frito Lay products in each bag

Prediction

I don’t know what Vegas knows about this game, but there’s no way it doesn’t clear the over. These two passing offenses rank amongst the best in the nation and this one could go down to whoever has the ball last. Arkansas State wins this one with a touchdown in the final two minutes of the game.

Final Score: Arkansas State 38, Nevada 35