Missouri Football: Tigers look to continue torrid finish in 2018 Liberty Bowl

Missouri football faces former Big 12 rival Oklahoma State in the Liberty Bowl, searching for a fifth straight win to cap a strong finish to the 2018 season.

Missouri closely followed the script from a season ago: a slow start, followed by a torrid finish to the season that left fans and pundits wondering what could have been in Columbia. Last season, the Tigers turned a 1-5 start into a 7-5 finish to the regular season, with six straight wins lifting them to the Texas Bowl.

This year, Missouri won their last four regular season games after a 4-4 start to end up in the Liberty Bowl. They’ll hope to end this season differently than last season against a Big 12 opponent, though. They lost to Texas in Houston to end on a sour note, and now they’ll face Oklahoma State in Memphis, hoping to reverse that outcome.

Things could have been better for Missouri in 2018, potentially just a play or two here and there away from the New Year’s Six. The Tigers fell to two top five opponents in Georgia and Alabama, with their other two losses coming by a combined three points. They lost to South Carolina in a monsoon, a game in which they had a postgame win expectancy of 96 percent. They lost to Kentucky by one point after blowing a two-score lead in the last five minutes, and being unable to pick up a single first down in the second half.

Led by senior QB Drew Lock, the Tigers have a lot of firepower on offense, and they’re likely to need it against a powerful Oklahoma State team capable of playing with the best of the best.

The ‘Pokes were one of college football’s most erratic teams in 2018, finishing the regular season at 6-6. They sported wins over the likes of Boise State, Texas, and West Virginia, while also taking Oklahoma to the absolute brink before succumbing by a single point.

They also got blown out by a pair of non-bowl teams in Texas Tech and Kansas State, never able to string together consistent performances to ascend up the conference ladder. Which Oklahoma State team shows up in Memphis will have a big impact on the outcome.

Here’s how you can watch the Liberty Bowl between Missouri and Oklahoma State:

Date: Monday, December 31
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Location: Memphis, TN
Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Can Oklahoma State force turnovers? One of the main impetuses for the Cowboys’ topsy-turvy season in Stillwater has been their lack of takeaways on defense. They managed just 12 on the season, and currently sit in a tie for 113th in the nation with a -8 turnover margin. When they take care of the football, Oklahoma State has been able to compete with the big boys in the Big 12; when they don’t, they’ve been unable to force takeaways to even up the turnover margin, leading to disheartening performances against mediocre opponents. If the good Oklahoma State shows up, the Liberty Bowl could be a thrilling game between two offenses with a lot of firepower. If not, things could get out of hand.

Can Missouri score touchdowns in the redzone? With a potential first round NFL Draft pick at QB in Drew Lock, numerous talented pass catchers, and a 1000 yard running back in Larry Roundtree, it’s hard to fathom that the Tigers have had trouble scoring touchdowns inside-the-20. On 57 redzone trips, Missouri has punched it into the endzone just 36 times, converting touchdowns just 63% of the time. Oklahoma State’s defense has been one of the best inside-the-20, ranking 6th in the nation in giving up points of any kind only 73% of the time. They allow touchdowns on only 56% of opposing redzone possessions. In a game that could easily turn into a shootout, redzone efficiency will be a big factor.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: Missouri -9
Over/Under: 73

Prediction

This spread opened with Missouri favored by 4.5, and has risen all the way up to 9 with the money pouring in on the Tigers. Barry Odom’s team has been much more consistent than Mike Gundy’s, but I would hesitate to be confident one way or the other. Missouri will be motivated to perform better in this bowl game than they did in Houston a year ago, hoping to win their ninth game and send decorated quarterback Drew Lock out on a high note. But Oklahoma State is talented enough to make this game interesting, with the formidable duo of Taylor Cornelius and Tylan Wallace locked in and ready for a track-meet. No outcome would surprise me too much, but I’ll stick with the more consistent team and take Missouri to come away with the win.

Final Score: Missouri 45, Oklahoma State 38