Mississippi State Football: Bulldogs face slugfest with Iowa in Outback Bowl

Two of the nation’s top defenses face off in the Outback Bowl as Mississippi State football takes on Iowa, with both teams searching for a ninth win.

In an offense-dominated era of college football, the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day promises to be a refreshing matchup for fans of the more minute details of the game, with defensive enthusiasts getting their monies worth when physical teams in Mississippi State and Iowa meet in Tampa. Both the Bulldogs and the Hawkeyes rank in the Top 5 in the nation in opponents yards-per-play.

It was a bit of a disappointing season in Starkville for a talented Mississippi State team that entered the season hoping to compete in the SEC West despite Dan Mullen departing for Gainesville over the offseason.

New head coach Joe Moorhead and senior QB Nick Fitzgerald were a bit of an odd fit, with the Bulldogs’ offense completely disappearing in their four losses. In the defeats to Kentucky, Florida, LSU, and Alabama, Mississippi State mustered a total of 16 points, failing to crack double-digits in any of the games.

Despite the offensive struggles, the Bulldogs were still able to manage eight wins thanks to one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, a defense that got a big boost for the Outback Bowl with three potential first round picks, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, defensive end Montez Sweat, and safety Johnathan Abram, bucking the trend and electing to play in the bowl game instead of sitting out to avoid a potential injury.

A win over Iowa would allow Mississippi State to finish the season on a high note, capturing a ninth win for the fourth time in five seasons.

It was also a bit of a disappointing season for Iowa, with the Hawkeyes suffering a late season swoon after a 6-1 start that had them in the driver’s seat of the Big Ten West. Iowa dropped three straight games in late October and early November to Penn State, Purdue, and Northwestern by a combined 12 points to fall out of contention in the West. Iowa went 1-3 on the season in one-score games, the close losses proving to be the difference in keeping them from Indianapolis.

Led by junior QB Nate Stanley and a smothering defense, Iowa is in its second Outback Bowl in three years, hoping for a better showing than their blowout loss to Florida in the 2017 version of the game.

Kirk Ferentz has struggled in bowl games in recent years, with last season’s Pinstripe Bowl win representing their first bowl victory since the 2010 Insight Bowl. They’ll be looking for a second straight postseason victory, and will have to do so without tight end Noah Fant, who elected to skip the game to focus on the NFL Draft.

Here’s how you can watch the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day between Mississippi State and Iowa:

Date: Tuesday, January 1
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Tampa, FL
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Which team will find more success in the redzone when they are able to get the rare scoring opportunity? Both defenses have smothered opponents this year, getting stingier and stingier as the opposition gets into scoring position. Iowa has allowed only five rushing touchdowns in the redzone all season long, which is Mississippi State’s bread-and-butter. Of the Bulldogs’ 28 redzone touchdowns this season, 19 of them have come on the ground. Can they break through on the ground, or can Fitzgerald hit a touchdown pass or two to big receivers like Stephen Guidry and Osirus Mitchell?

On the other side of the ball, no team has allowed less touchdowns in the redzone than Mississippi State. On 32 opposing redzone trips, the Bulldogs have relinquished the endzone only eight times. The Hawkeyes are scoring touchdowns inside-the-20 on only 65 percent of their trips, so they figure to have a tough time breaking through against the stout Bulldogs front. Scoring opportunities will be rare, so whichever team can take advantage of them in the redzone is likely to come out on top.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: Mississippi State -7
Over/Under: 42

Prediction

Expect an old-school slugfest in Tampa as both offenses struggle to find traction against the stout opposition. The pace and style of play figures to favor Mississippi State, however, as an ugly backyard brawl is just their style. Iowa doesn’t have the playmakers on offense to do much of note against the Bulldogs, and Stanley figures to face constant harassment against this front. Look for a close game throughout, with Fitzgerald and company wearing down the Hawkeyes in the fourth quarter, ultimately punching in a late touchdown to put this one to bed.

Final Score: Mississippi State 23, Iowa 13