Penn State Football aims for third straight 10-win season in 2019 Citrus Bowl
Penn State football goes for its third consecutive 10-plus win season when it faces off with Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day.
Penn State and Kentucky are perfect examples of the difference expectations make, with the two programs seemingly on divergent paths that both ended up at 9-3 and culminating in near-misses from New Year’s Six berths.
With senior quarterback Trace McSorley back in tow, and coming off of consecutive 11-win seasons, Penn State had Pasadena, and even playoff, aspirations to begin the season as they looked to capture their second Big Ten title in three years.
A one-point loss to Ohio State in Happy Valley ultimately beat the Nittany Lions twice, as they fell the next week to Michigan State at home as well. They had a dud of a performance in Ann Arbor that led to a 42-7 loss, but Penn State still managed nine wins, finishing in the Top 12, which would have led to a New Year’s Six berth if it wasn’t for the Big 12’s tie-ins to the Sugar Bowl that led to four-loss Texas ending up in New Orleans with Oklahoma’s berth into the playoff.
A 9-3 campaign being a disappointment shows how far James Franklin has brought this Penn State program, and a win in the Citrus Bowl would be their third consecutive 10-win season, and potentially their third consecutive top 10 finish.
For Kentucky, Mark Stoops finally had his breakthrough in Lexington, and regardless of what happens in Orlando, the Wildcats have had their most successful season since 1984. A win in the Outback Bowl would give Kentucky a 10th win for just the third time in program history, potentially culminating in a Top 10 finish for the first time since 1977.
Led by star RB Benny Snell Jr. and a ferocious defense, Kentucky had the opportunity in November to play Georgia in Lexington for the SEC East crown. The loss to Georgia led to a dispiriting 24-7 loss to 5-7 Tennessee, but the Wildcats rallied with wins over MTSU and Louisville to earn a bid to the most prestigious bowl game outside of the New Year’s Six.
Will it be Penn State or Kentucky that walks away with a 10th win in this Big 12 vs. SEC affair?
Here’s how you can watch the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day between the Nittany Lions and Wildcats:
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Date: Tuesday, Jan. 1
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Venue: Camping World Stadium
TV: ABC
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
Can Penn State stop the run? The Nittany Lions rank 70th in the nation this season against the run, giving up 168 yards-per-game on the ground. They’ll be facing a formidable and motivated foe in Benny Snell as he looks to capture the Kentucky career rushing record. Snell needs 107 yards in the Citrus Bowl to set the record. He has shouldered the load for the Wildcats offense all season long with inconsistent QB play from Terry Wilson. If you shut down Snell, you shut down the Kentucky offense. He was held to 81 yards or less in Kentucky’s three defeats, averaging right at four yards-per-carry, a full yard under his season average.
Can Kentucky produce enough through the air to maintain some offensive balance? Penn State has struggled against the run, but they’ll be able to make the going tough for Snell if they are able to focus their entire defensive attention on him. The onus will be on Terry Wilson to hit some passes to Lynn Bowden and company to keep the Nittany Lions from crowding the box and taking away the rushing offense. If Wilson can make a few plays in the passing game, then Kentucky may be able to find a decent amount of offensive success.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Penn State -6.5
Over/Under: 47
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Prediction
I’m not convinced that Wilson will be able to hit enough plays through the air to prevent Penn State from crowding the box and taking away Snell. On the other side, it’s hard for me to see decorated QB Trace McSorley losing his final game. In the Citrus Bowl, he’ll become the first Penn State QB to start in four bowl games, and I expect him to make a few plays in the fourth quarter that ultimately leads to Penn State pulling away for the win.
Final Score: Penn State 27, Kentucky 14