For the third time in four years, Alabama football finds itself up against Clemson in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
It’s Alabama and Clemson again for the national title. The two programs will meet for the fourth consecutive season in the College Football Playoff, and for the third time in four years it will be in the national championship.
The Tide and Tigers played in a pair of classic title games that were decided by a mere nine points, with the results being split between the two. They met again last season, this time in the semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, with the Crimson Tide rolling past Dabo Swinney and company 24-6.
College football continues to fall behind Saban and Swinney, with Alabama and Clemson being head-and-shoulders better than everyone else this season. With all the talk about playoff expansion, this is a year that would have been just fine with the old BCS system. The two semifinal games served as nothing more than tune-ups for the inevitable main event on Monday night.
The matchup may be becoming a little bit stale to neutral observers, but it’s hard to not be excited about the possibility of another classic game between the two heavyweights on Monday night in Santa Clara.
The two sides are mirror images of one another, with each rolling through their schedules at 14-0. Alabama’s average margin-of-victory this season is 31.5 points-per-game. Clemson’s? 31.4. They are nearly identical at every level.
On offense, they both boast future NFL quarterbacks in Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, dynamic skill position players, and talented offensive lines that open up running lanes and give their talented signal-callers more than enough time to pick apart secondaries.
On defense, the strength of both teams rests on the defensive lines, each unit boasting a bevy of future pros. Each team has talented, if inconsistent play at linebacker, and inexperienced but talented secondaries.
Anyone who sees a clear edge for either team is kidding themselves. This is a toss-up in every sense of the word. If you played this game ten times, you would likely find it split evenly down the middle with each team winning five.
In a winner-take-all game, however, it’s anybody’s guess who comes out on top on Monday night.
Here’s how you can watch the National Championship Game between No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Clemson:
Date: Monday, January 7
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Santa, Clara, CA
Venue: Levi’s Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
Can Alabama run the ball to maintain offensive balance? The Tide boast a trio of talented running backs in Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and Najee Harris, but will be without starting left guard Deonte Brown as he remains suspended due to NCAA violations. There was a noticeable difference this season with Brown in at left guard instead of senior Lester Cotton, so it will be interesting to see if the backs can find some space against a stout Clemson defensive front that will make life tough on Alabama’s offensive line even without stud defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.
If the Tide can’t run the ball effectively, that will put all the pressure on Tua to make plays, and with him less than 100 percent and going against a ferocious pass rush, that could lead to a mistake or two that ultimately proves to be the difference in the game.
Can Clemson keep Trevor Lawrence upright? Alabama’s defense ranks No. 2 in the country in havoc rate (defined as a tackle-for-loss, sack, pass defended, and forced fumble). The Tide creates havoc on 22 percent of defensive snaps, and they’ll be looking to get after the freshman QB to prevent him from carving up a secondary that could be ripe for the picking.
If the Tigers can get talented receivers like Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross on an island with freshman Patrick Surtain or the inconsistent Saivion Smith, that’s advantageous for the Tigers’ offense if they can protect Lawrence long enough for him to get the ball out. If not, it could be Lawrence who makes a key mistake to swing the game toward the Tide.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Alabama -5.5
Over/Under: 59.5
Prediction
This game is likely to come down to a handful of plays, with a turnover or two easily swinging it in the other direction. Neither team turns it over much, and neither team has much in the way of a discernible weakness.
As good as Trevor Lawrence has been in his freshman season, and he’s been phenomenal, he hasn’t yet faced an elite defensive team like he’ll see on Monday night. Look for Deionte Thompson or Xavier McKinney to bait the freshman into at least one mistake, which could be all it takes for the Crimson Tide to prevail. Also look for Tua to play a mistake-free night, coming up with clutch throws in the fourth quarter to lead Alabama to a second straight national title, and their sixth in the last ten years.
Final Score: Alabama 38, Clemson 34