Notre Dame Football: Is return trip to College Football Playoff realistic?

Although it was a rough ending to the 2018 season for Notre Dame football, 2019 presents another opportunity to return to the College Football Playoff

Notre Dame’s 12-0 regular season in 2018 yielded dreams of a return to the national championship. Had the Irish beaten Clemson in the Cotton Bowl last season, Brian Kelly’s squad would have had the opportunity to right the wrongs of a 2012 title game beatdown at the hands of Alabama — a fitting conclusion to a season defined by luck, that ended with a championship blowout in which the Irish were overmatched.

The Irish didn’t beat Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. They lost 30-3 in a game that was never close after losing All-American cornerback Julian Love to a hamstring injury. Tiger quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw all over the depleted Notre Dame secondary, passing for 327 yards and three touchdowns in the romp.

With Julian Love out of the game, the Irish were forced to change their coverage in the secondary schematically. With Love in the game early in the contest, the Irish were able to play man-to-man defense on Love’s side of the field with little help over the top. This allowed safety Alohi Gilman to provide cloud coverage on the other side of the field.

Once Love left the game, the Irish no longer had a corner who they could trust solely with man-to-man responsibilities. Troy Pride Jr., who is coming into his senior year at the opposite cornerback position, is a very good player, but he’s not the man-to-man corner that Julian Love was for the Irish.

Lawrence picked apart the zone defense that Notre Dame was forced to employ, leading to the blowout win. While Love’s departure certainly is not the reason that Notre Dame lost the game, it should be considered when looking at the reason for the four touchdown margin of defeat.

With that being said, Notre Dame was never winning last year’s Cotton Bowl, as Clemson’s defense completely overwhelmed the Irish up front, wrecking havoc on QB Ian Book, who did not perform well against the Tigers. It was a rough showing from the offense, and all-in-all, a less than stellar showing from the defense in Notre Dame’s inaugural trip to the College Football Playoff.

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Onward and upward go the Irish though, who should return to the fold in 2019 as one of several candidates to emerge in college football’s “Final Four” at season’s end. Quarterback Ian Book returns as the bona fide starter under center, and still has some key pieces on offense at his disposal.

While running back Dexter Williams and WR Miles Boykin are gone to the NFL, the Irish return two productive running backs in Jafar Armstrong and Tony Jones Jr., to go along with two of the more efficient receivers the team has had in recent memory in Chris Finke and Chase Claypool.

While the losses of Williams and Boykin cannot be understated, the offense should still score plenty of points in 2019, as it’s reasonable to expect a sizable step forward for Ian Book, who was one of the nation’s most efficient passers a year ago.

On the defense, Notre Dame will have to make up for the losses of LB Te’Von Coney and DL Jerry Tillery, who were two of the main cogs in the middle of one of the better run defenses in college football in 2018.

While the loss of that duo will certainly be tough to swallow, the Irish have two elite pass-rushing defensive ends returning, in seniors Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara. The return of that duo, coupled with the return of Troy Pride Jr. at corner and Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman at safety, should pave the way for a formidable passing defense in 2019.

It’s certainly a good thing that the pass defense appears stout on paper, especially when considering what lies ahead on the schedule for the Irish this fall. Many prognosticators argue that it’s a three-game season for Notre Dame, with three pivotal road games at Georgia (Sept. 21), at Michigan (Oct. 26), and at Stanford (Nov. 30) likely deciding whether or not the Irish will return to the College Football Playoff. All three of those teams should have formidable passing attacks, an aspect that certainly will not be overlooked by second-year defensive coordinator Clark Lea.

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While those three opponents will likely carry the weight for Notre Dame’s playoff chances, three tough home games against ACC opponents in Virginia (Sept. 28), Virginia Tech (Nov. 2), and Boston College (Nov. 23), cannot be overlooked.

Virginia and Virginia Tech will likely be two of the teams competing for the ACC’s Coastal Division crown and should not be taken lightly. Virginia, who is 2019’s preseason favorite in the division, nearly pulled off an early season home upset in their last match-up against the Irish in Charlottesville in 2015, and while ND handled Virginia Tech in Blacksburg last season, the Hokies took down the Irish in their last visit to South Bend in 2016.

Boston College, despite losing most of its production on offense and defense, still have a dark horse Heisman candidate running back in A.J. Dillon, who is a strong game against Notre Dame away from writing another chapter in a historic rivalry.

The Irish do not have many spots for letdowns in 2019 — as is quite commonly the case. Notre Dame’s status as an Independent has been well-documented, with the lucrative television contract with NBC leading the way for the reasons why the Irish will not join the ACC on a full-time basis.

Despite not joining the conference, Notre Dame now boasts five ACC games annually to go with their schedule mainstays of Southern Cal, Navy and Stanford. The remaining four games provide room for flexibility, but on years when the Irish drop a game in the regular season, it pays to have a grueling schedule to make up for the lack of a conference championship appearance at season’s end.

Notre Dame’s last two trips to College Football’s biggest stage concluded with a thud, with the 2012 romp against Alabama and last year’s CFP Semifinal against Clemson leading some to wonder whether Notre Dame, without a conference championship, should even be considered for a chance to play for a national championship.

The argument itself, putting a current season’s merit on prior seasons’ disappointments against college football’s elite, is not only an unfair threshold, it’s idiotic.

The argument itself, one that would exclude an undefeated Notre Dame from the College Football Playoff, puts the Irish in the same category as undefeated UCF, who certainly does not have the talent on the roster to go undefeated playing the same caliber of schedule as Notre Dame.

Alas, with Georgia, Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech, and Virginia as the five toughest opponents on the schedule, Notre Dame can likely go 11-1 and still have a great case for the College Football Playoff. A 12-0 season would seal the deal for the second consecutive year, and would put Brian Kelly in the conversation, national title or not, as one of the country’s top head coaches.

While it’s a tough ask for Notre Dame to go undefeated, or even 11-1 with the schedule this fall, it’s likely that the Irish are an upset or two away from making noise again on college football’s biggest stage.

Will a return to the Playoff yield better results this time around? Will the Irish even have the opportunity to be considered as one of college football’s final four?

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All eyes are on South Bend this fall, and Brian Kelly and Notre Dame wouldn’t have it any other way.

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