Hawaii football pulled off a 45-38 upset of Arizona on Saturday night to open the 2019 season. Let’s evaluate the performance of two key players.
Whenever a Group of Five team upsets a Power Five opponent, there are many working parts that must move together with the utmost precision. Special teams must come through at critical times, defense has to come up with key stops, and the offense must find ways to put points on the scoreboard.
And even when all phases of the game come together, a team still needs a lot of luck and for some bounces to go their way.
On Saturday night at Aloha Stadium, Hawaii held on to defeat Arizona 45-38 after Wildcats quarterback Khalil Mack was tripped up one yard shy of the goal line as he ran for the endzone on the final play in regulation. It was an impressive performance all around, but it was hardly the perfectly-executed type of performance one might expect from a mid-major upsetting a power-conference opponent.
As Sunday Morning Quarterback returns for a new season, Week 0 provides a great opportunity to evaluate what went right for Hawaii. And, despite emerging victorious, it also affords the chance to dig into what went wrong for the Rainbow Warriors.
Putting Cedric Byrd’s big game into perspective
In the victory, Hawaii receiver Cedric Byrd II had the performance of his career to date. Hauling in 14 catches, Byrd finished the night with 224 receiving yards and four touchdowns to account for the bulk of the points in the victory.
It was a breakout performance in the best possible way. Byrd arrived in Honolulu last season as a JUCO transfer, and he bookended the regular season with a 181-yard game and a 140-yard outing. Not even during his first two years at Long Beach City College did he come close to posting a 200-yard game catching the football.
The four touchdown catches he hauled in were also a new single-game high for Byrd. In a 2017 game for Long Beach against Saddleback College, Byrd caught three touchdowns. At the FBS level, Byrd hauled in two touchdowns on two separate occasions last season. On Saturday, Arizona had absolutely no answer for him as he continually got behind the Wildcats secondary and tormented the defensive backs.
Most of his productivity came in the first half, when Cole McDonald was tossing the ball all over the field at Aloha Stadium. By halftime, Byrd had already caught 10 of his 11 targets for 128 yards and three scores. Returning from the intermission, McDonald targeted him four times, with the receiver bringing in two of them for 62 yards.
When Chevan Cordeiro came in at quarterback, Byrd was targeted four more times, hauling in two of those passes for 34 yards and his fourth touchdown catch.
While this was a new career high all around for Byrd, it was not anywhere near the NCAA records for receiving. How close was Byrd to breaking records? As we can see breaking his numbers down, the Hawaii receiver was further from the record books than it might seem:
- The 14 catches that Byrd hauled in were nine shy of the FBS single-game record set by UNLV’s Randy Gatewood in 1994 and tied by Eastern Michigan’s Tyler Jones in 2008.
- The 224 receiving yards brought in by Byrd fell 181 yards short of the 405 yards that former Louisiana Tech star Troy Edwards racked up on 21 catches against Nebraska in 1998.
- Byrd’s four touchdown receptions were barely more than half of the seven receiving scores hauled in by Oklahoma State’s Rashaun Woods when he set the record against SMU in 2003.
A performance like the one Cedric Byrd put in today, while it did not break any FBS records, sets a benchmark for every other receiver to target this season. Maintaining the level of productivity that he posted in the first half proved impossible, especially once Hawaii started to see diminishing returns from McDonald.
Speaking of McDonald’s performance…
As a first-year starter in 2018, Cole McDonald was a revelation. Breaking out as one of the top quarterbacks in the Mountain West, he finished with 3,875 passing yards and 36 touchdown passes on a completion rate just south of 59 percent. Most importantly, McDonald only threw 10 interceptions over the course of his 13 appearances for the Rainbow Warriors.
On one hand, McDonald looked like he had dramatically improved his command of the offense. Through the first half, McDonald completed more than three-quarters of his passes for 287 yards and four scores through the air. Playing far more accurately, McDonald carved up the Arizona secondary through most of the first two quarters.
Of course, he was hardly perfect. In addition to throwing four touchdown passes, he also tossed a trio of interceptions that in at least two of the three cases were completely a product of trying to force things.
When you have an arm like McDonald brings to the gridiron, it can be tempting to think one can force the issue. But if not for repeatedly handing Arizona the ball back on turnovers, Hawaii would have blown their Pac-12 visitors completely out of the water.
Ultimately, Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich was unwilling to keep risking interceptions after McDonald hucked his fourth pick in the third quarter. The junior was benched in favor of redshirt freshman Chevan Cordeiro, who led the Rainbow Warriors on a pair of scoring drives and ensured that the hosts would emerge with the upset.
Could Cordeiro supplant McDonald as the full-time starter in Hawaii? The youngster protected the football better, but he also was less likely to launch the ball downfield to gain big chunks of yardage. Cordeiro’s longest play of the game was the 30-yard touchdown strike to Byrd; other than that throw, none of Cordeiro’s passes went longer than 10 yards.
Ultimately, what the numbers show is that McDonald is a higher-risk prospect at quarterback than his younger backup. However, McDonald is also a higher-reward threat under center than his more conservative counterpart on the depth chart.
What is next for Hawaii after this statement win?
Getting a big win like this can catalyze a Group of Five team as they try to make a run at an invitation to a major bowl game. Entering the season, Hawaii looked like a contender in what promises to be a wide-open MWC West race this year. Taking down a Power Five opponent offers the type of confidence boost that will be necessary for the Rainbow Warriors to take the next leap.
Rolovich and his offensive staff, though, need to figure out how to reconcile everything incredible that happened throughout the season opener with those aspects that still need major improvement.
McDonald, for all his issues turning over the football against Arizona, remains Hawaii’s best chance at running the table in 2019. And as long as McDonald is testing defenses downfield, Byrd is likely to have more massive performances that could set him up for a run at this year’s Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver.
It is too early in the year to crown Hawaii, especially since their victory over the Wildcats could have been that much more comprehensive without all the turnover gaffes. But the Rainbow Warriors are building something impressive this season, and the rest of the FBS needs to heed the message coming from the island.