College Football Rankings 2019: Breaking down Week 4 movement

With a big win over Stanford, UCF made the biggest climb in the college football Top 25 this week. Who else had a big climb, and who tumbled hardest?

Projecting the AP Top 25 is always going to be an inexact art. Without being able to get into the mind of each of the 62 individual voters whose ballots comprise the weekly poll, one can do their best estimation of where a diverse group of media members will cast their attention in a field that remains glutted after only three weeks. There are always some hits and some misses.

As the season progresses, however, we can begin to see some broader trends as to how teams track up and down the Top 25 rankings. With both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll, we can see week after week how teams fare in terms of the vote shares they receive on aggregate.

What follows is the first of what will be a weekly statistical analysis of the teams making the biggest composite moves among the voting populace in the AP Top 25. In future week we will also begin to include a comparison between the AP and Coaches polls, to help better see how teams track among the widest range of interested groups.

This week we stick to the AP Top 25.

Biggest Mover: UCF (+159/No. 17 to No. 15)

With their 18-point victory over Stanford, UCF started to make a move up the AP Top 25 in a way that could finally put them in the minds of the College Football Playoff selection committee when they commence their weekly deliberations in late October. The Knights showed up big on both sides of the ball, with UCF’s defense holding Stanford under five yards per play and the offense putting up 545 yards in the blowout.

Pollsters have warmed on the Knights in a way they did not early in the past few seasons. The win over Stanford obviously helped, but UCF also opened at No. 17 in the preseason poll with 98 more points in the AP Top 25 than they did in the 2018 preseason rankings. After three games last season, the Knights were ranked No. 16 — but held 147 fewer points among the pollsters.

Since the preseason the Knights have gained 293 points in the polls, jumping two spots up the ladder this week. With a road trip to Pitt that will feature in the prime afternoon spot on ABC, UCF has a chance to make another leap this week.

Honorable Mention: Wisconsin (+12/held at No. 14)

With Wisconsin on a bye in Week 3, it is easy to dismiss what they have done so far in the AP Top 25. The 12-point jump in the polls didn’t cause any movement for Paul Chryst’s team, but that is . not the story about this team. Rather, the Badgers have made an even bigger leap since the preseason than the Knights, leading the way with a 356-point increase from where they sat in the opening AP Top 25.

A big part of that jump has been an offense that looks better passing the ball than in recent seasons and still has Jonathan Stewart. Another big part is a defense that has shut out every opponent to date, putting Wisconsin once again among the best defenses in the nation.  Big Ten tests in their near future will determine whether the Badgers make another leap up the polls or fall out of the Top 25 as a pretender.

Biggest Fall: Michigan State (-458/No. 18 to No. 29)

Speaking of pretenders, the pollsters soured quickly on Michigan State after their 10-7 loss to Arizona State at home in Week 3. The Spartans out-gained the Sun Devils by nearly 200 yards, but struggled to find the endzone or even just some semblance of continuity and consistency on offense.

The endgame proved especially disappointing for Michigan State, as Mark Dantonio’s team drove into field goal range to tie the contest and send things to overtime. Matt Coghlin drilled his 42-yard attempt through the uprights, but it turned out 12 men were on the field for the Spartans. Backed up five yards, Coghlin tried from 47 yards but hooked his attempt wide left.

Had the Spartans gone to overtime and won the game, they would probably still be hovering around the mid-to-high teens of the AP Top 25 this week. Instead, they dropped behind three other programs among the others receiving votes, falling from 495 points to just 37 in the most recent release.

Honorable Mention: Michigan (-19/No. 10 to No. 11)

On an idle week, Michigan fell from No. 10 to No. 11 in the AP Top 25. Leapfrogged by Utah, the Wolverines probably haven’t given much consideration to the one-spot drop among the media voters.

But a greater concern for the Wolverines should be their fall from their initial position in the preseason rankings. In giving up 21 points to both Middle Tennessee and Army, Michigan finds itself looking like a shaky 2-0 team. Though they beat the Blue Raiders by 19 points in the end, the Wolverines needed overtime to survive the Black Knights at the Big House as Jeff Monken’s team evoked shades of Appalachian State.

With an extra week to sleep on the Wolverines’ first two performances, pollsters seem to be less enamored with the preseason gloss bestowed on Jim Harbaugh’s team. They have shed 247 points since the beginning of the season to stumble from No. 7 to No. 11. If they can’t restore confidence soon among pollsters, the drop could continue.