Boise State football looks to continue march toward New Year’s Six vs. Air Force

Can Boise State football keep its New Year’s Six journey alive with a win against a surprising Air Force team in the home opener in Boise?

This is one of those games. This is a game that no one is looking for the Falcons. Everyone is all in on the Broncos. They are the home team, and looking to get back into the New Year’s Six. They come in with the huge upset win against the Florida State Seminoles.

Air Force is the team that no one outside of Colorado Springs is expecting much from. The Falcons run a multiple form of the option. This is one of those games that can spoil the Broncos’ season before it ever gets started.

Boise State comes off a blowout win against Portland State while Air Force upset the Colorado Buffaloes. Air Force, like Navy and Army, is difficult to prepare for because you don’t see its offense save the one time a year you face it. In addition, the Falcons don’t run one formation flex like Army or Navy, they run multiple — that is, they run the option from various formations.

Boise State better be ready, or there will be many hung heads in Albertsons Stadium Friday night.

Here’s how to watch:

Date: Friday Sept. 20
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Location: Boise, Idaho
Venue: Albertsons Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For Air Force, it’s all about the option. This shortens the game and limits possessions. The Falcons had the ball almost 10 minutes longer than Colorado in their 30-23 overtime win. It’s no secret what Air Force wants to do on offense. The Falcons had 65 rushes against Colgate in their opener, and 52 rushes against Colorado. They are going to run, and see if you have enough bodies on defense to outlast them.

Defensively, can they make the man the myth the legend Hank Bachmeier look like a freshman? His numbers aren’t off the charts, but he has moxy and grit in close games. The Broncos could be 1-2 as easily as they could be 3-0.

Boise likes to run the ball as well, so you might want to take the under on that one. The Broncos’ top two rushers have 79 carries between the two of them. Their key to success is a simple one as well: They have to get off the field on third and fourth downs. Air Force is 11-for-19 on third downs and 2-for-2 on fourth downs in this young season. Boise doesn’t want to allow the Falcons to go on long drives keeping their defense on the field and their offense on the sidelines.

One important yet subtle fact that cannot be overlooked is the discipline with which Air Force plays. The Falcons are not going to lose this game, so Boise has to win it outright. Don’t expect many turnovers or penalties by Air Force. If Boise turns it over or commits drive-killing penalties, it could be in for an upset.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Bovada

Line: Boise State -8
Over/Under: 55

Prediction

This one is tough. This is the very definition of an upset special. Bachmeier eventually has to play like a freshman, right? It won’t be in this game. Boise has too much on the line. They are in the same division as the Air Force. If they drop this one, they might not have a chance to even get to the championship game not to mention the New Year’s Six. They are at home, Albertsons will be packed full of Bronco fans and Boise rides that to a closely-contested win.

Final Score: Air Force 20, Boise State 30