Cal at Ole Miss (Saturday at 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Spread: Ole Miss -2.5
California is making the return trip to Oxford after Ole Miss’ trip to Berkeley in 2017. This is one of the most surprising spreads of the week to me. Even with the long road trip, the Golden Bears have looked like far the more impressive of the two sides thus far.
Cal is 3-0 with a road win over Washington on its resume. Led by Evan Weaver, the Golden Bears’ defense has been swarming through three weeks. Ole Miss’ offense has looked better since managing just 10 points in a week one loss to Memphis, but wins over Arkansas over Southeastern Louisiana won’t do much to move the needle for the Rebels.
The SEC’s reputation seems to be the main impetus for Vegas setting this line in favor of the Rebels, but Cal is the better team regardless of the venue this game is played in. This is a must-win game for the PAC-12 as a whole with its struggles against the SEC in recent seasons.
Look for Cal to dominant both lines of scrimmage, putting pressure on Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral and limiting Scottie Phillips and the ground game. Expect points to be at a premium, but Chase Garbers will hit a couple of plays that ultimately prove to be the difference in a Golden Bears victory.
Pick: Cal 23, Ole Miss 16