College Football 2019: Predictions for Week 5’s biggest games

Navy at Memphis (Thursday at 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Spread: Memphis -10.5

The door to the AAC crown and a potential spot in the New Year’s Six has opened after UCF showed some chinks in the armor in last week’s one-point loss to Pitt. Perhaps no team in the conference has nipped at the Knights’ heels more — and failed to get over the hump — than Memphis.

The Tigers are off to a 3-0 start with victories over bottom feeders Southern and South Alabama to go along with their victory over Ole Miss in week one. The Tigers now open AAC play against a much-improved Navy team also looking to stake its claim in the AAC West for a crack at the Knights — or whoever — comes out of the East.

Navy dropped to 3-10 in 2018, its worst finish since Paul Johnson’s first season in Annapolis in 2002. The Midshipmen look like a much better football team through two games in 2018 – earning resounding victories over Holy Cross and East Carolina, though this will be their first true test. Navy should be well rested having already had two bye weeks this early in the season.

Navy will try and ground the ball and milk the clock to keep the ball out of the hands of Brady White and the dangerous Memphis offense. Can White and his playmakers maximize their possessions, or will Navy be able to dominate the clock and make this one come down to the wire?

While I do think Navy is a better team in 2018, I think Memphis might be the best team in the AAC this season, and I expect the Tigers to flex their muscles as they knock off Navy by a couple of touchdowns.

Pick: Memphis 35, Navy 21