Pac-12 Football: 3 bold predictions for November 2019

3. Pac-12 gets a team in the playoff

Since the Oregon Ducks lost to the Auburn Tigers and the Utah Utes lost to the USC Trojans, the Pac-12 has been the forgotten conference.

It can’t be easy for the conference on the West Coast. Most of their primetime games don’t begin until 10 p.m. eastern time or later, and they schedule their top teams poorly. Neither the Ducks nor the Utes have a primetime game this weekend. Because of their late start times, it’s easy to forget about them.

However, they have a path to get to the College Football Playoff and here it is.

Here are some interesting facts about the College Football Playoff:

• In every year since the inception of the playoff, the only team ranked in the initial rankings and in the final ranking is Alabama.
• Neither Oregon nor Utah would be the lowest ranked team to make it to the semifinals. Ohio State was ranked No. 16 in 2014.
• Oregon is ranked No. 7. There have been two teams (Oklahoma and Michigan State) that started at No. 7 and made it to the playoff.

There are three conferences that have an above average chance of having an undefeated conference champion: Big Ten, ACC and the SEC. The Big 12 might have one undefeated team, or they might have a one-loss champion. Let’s dig into some specific scenarios.

Clemson and Ohio State are undefeated

That leaves two slots open. If Baylor sweeps Oklahoma — unlikely, but hey anythings possible — the point is moot and you have your top four. By the way, we are going to have one year with four undefeated conference champions — you heard it here first.

If Oklahoma loses to Baylor in the regular season, Kansas State would then have a shot at the conference championship owning the tie-breaker over the Sooners and play two-loss Iowa State at season’s end. In other words the Big 12 would be anarchy. With the Big 12 eliminated, you have to choose between one-loss Pac-12, Penn State (possibly) and Alabama (possibly).

Who would have the best resume?

Would you hold it against Oregon that they lost to Auburn and a one-loss Alabama would have that win in their back pocket? Despite the common opponent, Oregon has the better resume in this situation. They’re a conference champion with wins over Utah, Washington (which was ranked) and Arizona State. All three of those wins are better than Alabama’s second best win; Texas A&M.

The easiest path to the playoff

A two-loss Big 12 champ, Alabama loses to Auburn and Penn State loses this weekend to Minnesota and then to Ohio State.