Georgia football: Could Bulldogs reach playoff with SEC title game loss?

No. 4 Georgia football faces a gargantuan task against No. 2 LSU Saturday’s SEC title game. Could the Bulldogs still reach the CFP with a loss to the Tigers?

Much of the discussion surrounded the elusive fourth and final College Football Playoff bid has centered around Utah and Oklahoma. The Utes and Sooners are ranked fifth and sixth, respectively, in the latest CFP rankings and could finish as one-loss champions of a power conference with a win this weekend in the conference title game.

Most observers believe that if Georgia wins this weekend, it has a sure ticket to the CFP (along with LSU) after excluding both Pac-12 and Big 12 champions.

Could Georgia, though, still reach the CFP with a loss on Saturday?

Consider the possibility that Georgia and LSU engage in a back-and-forth affair. There’s high drama, a couple controversial penalties, perhaps an untimely injury, and then last-minute heroics. If LSU emerges in this scenario with, say, a three-point victory, the CFP committee would still take a long and hard look at these Bulldogs.

Imagine, too, that this imagined result occurs while Oregon and Baylor both win their respective conference title games, along with No. 1 Ohio State defeating No. 8 Wisconsin (which already has two losses) in the Big Ten championship game.

The CFP Committee insists that it views the entire body of work for this season and that there is something tangible in “the eye test.” If Utah and OU were to both win their games this Saturday, how would their résumés stack up against the Bulldogs?

Looking at current CFP positions, OU would have three ranked wins: No. 7 Baylor (twice) and No. 25 Oklahoma State. Two of these three victories were on the road. Utah would have one ranked win: No. 13 Oregon. Georgia would have three ranked wins: No. 9 Florida, No. 11 Auburn, and No. 15 Notre Dame. Two of these three wins were away from home.

Georgia backers could point to a squad that ranks seventh in the nation in scoring margin at 20.4 points per game with a Top 10-rated schedule strength. Utah has a relatively weaker schedule as a result of several disappointing Pac-12 teams’ seasons (such as Washington and Arizona State). OU has several narrow escapes against mid-tier Big 12 teams, such as a one-point win against Iowa State and a four-point win against TCU.

As far as losses are concerned, OU’s is to No. 7 Baylor, Utah’s is to No. 22 USC, and Georgia’s is to unranked South Carolina. The SEC, too, is a bit weaker overall this year than in others.

A vocal segment of commentators believed that Georgia deserved consideration for the fourth spot after its narrow loss to Alabama in the 2018 SEC championship game. That doesn’t matter officially to CFP Committee members, but could it bubble up sub-consciously?

Yes, the SEC critics would howl loudly. But this year’s CFP Committee has shown that it likes Georgia as of now. After this Saturday, a Georgia loss to LSU would not be an automatic elimination from the CFP’s top final four rankings.