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College football’s 5 best bets for 2019-20 bowl season

By Will Koger

TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 23: The Memphis Tigers celebrate winning a game against the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium on November 23, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 23: The Memphis Tigers celebrate winning a game against the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium on November 23, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
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DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 02: Head coach Frank Solich of the Ohio Bobcats yells for the sideline while playing the Western Michigan Broncos during the MAC Championship on December 2, 2016 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 02: Head coach Frank Solich of the Ohio Bobcats yells for the sideline while playing the Western Michigan Broncos during the MAC Championship on December 2, 2016 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

1. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Ohio (6-6) vs. Nevada (7-5)
Friday, Jan. 3 (3 p.m. ET)
Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho

Pick: Ohio -7.5

Four of Ohio’s six losses came by three or fewer points. Meanwhile, five of Nevada’s seven wins came by seven points or less. So if these close games swung the other way, Ohio is 10-2 while Nevada is 2-10. This is a good, unlucky team playing a bad, lucky team. SP+ realizes this, ranking 6-6 Ohio 54th in total SP+ and 7-5 Nevada 112th.

Bobcats’ quarterback Nathan Rourke has had a phenomenal career. The senior boasts a 151.7 QBR and leads an offense averaging 443.3 yards and 34.7 points per game, good for 26th in offensive SP+. Nevada, on the other hand, gives up 32 points per game while only scoring 21, leading to a 114th ranking in offensive SP+ and 84th on the defensive side.

By comparing total SP+ rating, Ohio’s 2.5 and Nevada’s -12.5 suggests a 15-point win for the Bobcats, making them under-favored by over a touchdown.

Next. Ranking college football's top 50 fanbases. dark

Is it better to be lucky or good? The lucky team may have the better record, but all the numbers say Ohio is better and should blow Nevada out, and I trust veteran Ohio coach Frank Solich to deliver.

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