Wisconsin Football: Will Jonathan Taylor’s mileage scare NFL teams?

After one of the most productive careers in history, there is some uncertainty around where Wisconsin football’s Jonathan Taylor will be drafted.

Based solely on production, Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor should be the first running back off the board and a surefire first-round pick. Taylor was a beast at Wisconsin and is the only running back in college football history to have multiple 2,000-yard seasons, as he has rushed for 2,003 yards and 2,194 over the past two years, respectfully.

For a guy with such production, Taylor entered the draft process with a lot of questions. Was he fast enough? Did he have fumbling issues? Has he carried the ball too many times in his career already?

Taylor was in need of a standout performance at the NFL combine and that is exactly what he got. He put some of the questions about his speed to rest by running a 4.39 40-yard dash. Still, with a guy that was so productive at the highest level of college football, why is there so much uncertainty with where Taylor should get drafted?

Taylor burst onto the college football scene as a true freshman, rushing for 1,977 yards and 13 touchdowns and averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He had three games that season with over 200 yards rushing and rushed for over 100 in 10 the 14 that he played and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting. The only disappointment in his freshman season in 2017 was his performance in the 2017 Big Ten Championship against Ohio State where Taylor finished the game with only 41 yards on 15 carries and that was a disappointing performance in such a big game with a playoff spot on the line.

While Wisconsin did not duplicate the same kind of season success in 2018, it was no fault of Taylor’s as he finished the season with nearly 2,200 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns. There was only one game all season where Taylor did not rush for at least 100 yards and Taylor even turned in a 33-carry, 321-yard and three-touchdown performance in a triple overtime victory vs Purdue that season. Taylor finished ninth in the Heisman voting at season’s end and had Wisconsin had a more successful season, he would have finished higher.

Wisconsin was looking for a big bounce back season in 2019 and Wisconsin and Taylor both delivered. He put up another 2,000-yard season and led Wisconsin to a 10-4 season and a Rose Bowl berth.

After some thought about possibly staying at Wisconsin for his senior season, Taylor declared for the draft and looks to be a first round running back. I’m going to take a look at his strengths, weaknesses and give a draft projection.

Strengths

Taylor has ideal size, at 5-foot-11 and 220 pounds, to be an every-down back in the NFL and he has proven that at Wisconsin. He has great acceleration and is a tough, physical runner.

Taylor was highly-productive as an every-down back and was very well-coached at Wisconsin. He might be the best pass-blocker in the entire class and that will prove to be valuable. He has good speed and showed at Wisconsin that he can be a home-run hitter in the backfield.

Weaknesses

The Wisconsin star was not used very much as a receiver and that may lower his value in some teams eyes. He also had fumbling issues, putting the ball on the ground 15 times over the past three seasons.

My biggest concern with Taylor heading into the draft is the volume of carries that he has had over the past three seasons. He totaled 926 carries over the past three seasons and running backs don’t have long careers as it is, so teams may not like Taylor having mileage on him already. Running backs don’t carry as much value as some other positions and that could cause Taylor to fall further than you would expect.

Draft Expectation

For being such a highly-productive player in college, Taylor feels like he is flying a bit under the radar. He helped himself tremendously at the NFL combine by running a faster 40 than expected. His draft projection is a little tough because while he does have the most production in this class, guys like D’Andre Swift and JK Dobbins don’t have the mileage on them and did not have the fumbling concerns that Taylor does, and RB’s are just not valued like they used to be. These things will cause Taylor to fall further than expected.

Projection: Mid-to-late second round