Iowa Football: Will AJ Epenesa drop out of first round in NFL draft?

After two really productive seasons with Iowa football, AJ Epenesa looked to be a top 15 pick. But a poor NFL combine performance changed that.

AJ Epenesa was very productive in the Big Ten in the past two seasons and one of the best defensive linemen in the country.

In fact, Epenesa accounted for 22 sacks and eight forced fumbles over the past two years and was named to The Athletic‘s 2019 All-American team and second and third-team All-American by various other outlets. He looked to be a top 15 pick lock for the upcoming NFL draft, but then the NFL Combine happened.

One of the only questions about Epenesa heading into the draft and the combine were about his athleticism. A lot of draft experts thought that he didn’t have the athleticism to be  considered a true edge player and they thought that he could use a big combine to maintain his first round draft status.

To put it bluntly, I don’t think a player hurt their draft stock more than Epenesa did in Indianapolis at the NFL combine. He ran the 40-yard dash in 5.04 seconds, only did 17 reps on the bench press and had a 32.5-inch vertical jump. Those are not the numbers that you would want from a first round pick at defensive end.

However, I still like Epenesa as a prospect because, in my opinion, combine workouts should only be a small fraction of the evaluation for an NFL prospect and I think that his film speaks for itself.

Let’s take a look at Epenesa’s strengths and weaknesses are and give him a projection on where he could end up.

Strengths

At 6-foot-5, 275 pounds, Epenesa is a mountain of man and I think his size can give him some versatility on the defensive line. On early downs, he will be a very effective outside player as a 4-3 end or a five-technique player in a 3-4 scheme.

While I think he’s good enough to stay on the outside, where he would be most effective on third-and-medium or third-and-long in the NFL would be as an inside rusher because one of his biggest assets was the way he used his strength to bullrush his way to the quarterback and he was very effective at doing that against USC in the Holiday Bowl, where he was named MVP after recording 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. It’s also worth mentioning that he was lining up against Austin Jackson, who some think could be a first round left tackle in the draft next month.

His versatility, strength and instincts for making plays while rushing the passer are Epenesa’s biggest strengths as a prospect and it’s why some teams could take him earlier than projected because those front offices will value production highly.

Weaknesses

I’ve made it very clear about what could hold up Epenesa at the next level and it’s his almost alarming lack of athleticism.

Now, there are some edge rushers in the NFL that rely solely on their athletic ability, such as Vic Beasley, and he is not a very consistent pass rusher, but putting up some of the combine numbers that Epenesa did really draws into question how effective he can be as an every-down player at the next level.

To be a top-tier pass rusher at the next level, you need to be able to win in a variety of ways and have the ability to come off the edge with quickness and it’s fair to question whether Epenesa could do that at the next level.

Draft Projection

As I have said previously, I still like Epenesa as a draft prospect. I really value production and consistency in college and while his combine was clearly disappointing, he could still be a fit for a team and be a productive and solid player at the next level, although I don’t think he has superstar potential, which is why I wouldn’t take him with a top 10 pick.

The best team fit for him would be the Baltimore Ravens at the bottom of the first round because he would fit best in 3-4 scheme and they always know how to get the best out of players like Epenesa.

Projection: Late-first, early-second round