Iowa State football will be on upset alert against Louisiana in Week 2

Iowa State football is looking to take a big step and compete for the Big 12 title, but first it needs to get through a dynamic Louisiana offense.

Iowa State is off what should be viewed as one of their most successful seasons in recent history. The 7-6 record doesn’t look that impressive, but three of those losses came by two points or less. Four of their six losses came by a total of 11 points. The only really bad losses came at the end of the season to Kansas State and then Notre Dame in their bowl game.

The Cyclones were very close to breaking through and competing for a Big 12 title. Fans in Ames have a lot to be excited about for 2020 and the future with Matt Campbell running the show. The Cyclones have finished with a winning record for three straight years under Campbell, the first time the program has done so since 1976-78.

Another reason to be excited about this team is quarterback Brock Purdy, who is rewriting the Iowa State record books. Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year with a 27-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Cyclones should have a strong running game this year as well. Sophomore Breece Hall emerged as a star last year averaging 101.6 yards per game over the final eight games. Behind Hall is red shirt freshman Jirehl Brock, who has been getting strong reviews over the offseason.

The tight end room is one of the best groups in the country led by All-American Charlie Kolar. Chase Allen also gets action and has made the All-Big 12 team the last two seasons. That duo is the strength of the passing game, but there’s excitement behind big play threat Tarique Milton, who averaged 20.6 yards per catch last year, and JUCO transfer Xavier Hutchinson

On the other side of the ball nine starters are back on what should be one of the better units in the conference. Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock is proving himself to be one of the top coordinators in the country. His 3-3-5 base scheme is rarely seen in college football but has proven to be successful.

Greg Eisworth is a hybrid guy who moves all over the field from safety to linebacker and should contend for all-conference honors. Corner Anthony Johnson is a stud and adds to the experience in the secondary. JaQuan Bailey is back starting at defensive end after injury forced him to miss almost all of last year. Getting a healthy Bailey back is huge, he can be a real disruptor and made the All-Big 12 team in 2018.

On the other sideline is the Sun Belt runner-up in Louisiana led by head coach Bill Napier. Last year, the Cajuns had one of the best offenses in the country, finishing top 10 nationally in scoring, rushing and total offense.

Quarterback Levi Lewis is the perfect guy for this group, he’s very smart with the ball only throwing four interceptions to 26 touchdowns last year, but still can sling it throwing for 3,050 yards. The rushing attack is the scariest part of this offense with the dynamic duo of Trey Ragas and Elijiah Mitchell back. The two have combined for 5,023 career rushing yards and 61 career touchdowns, the most of any duo in the country.

The offensive line has a lot of experience and will be strong once again.

The defense last year was the top group in the Sun Belt, finishing first in scoring and passing, second in total and fifth in rushing. The defense returns a lot of the guys from last year including stud nose tackle Zi’Yon Hill, last season’s sack leader Joe Dillon and tackles leader Lorenzo McCaskill.

Here’s how to watch:

Date: Saturday, Sept. 12
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Ames, Iowa
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For Iowa State, the offensive line needs to be better. There’s a lot of turnaround for this group, with only left guard Trevor Downing and center Colin Newell as guys with starting experience. The line wasn’t great last year and is now rolling out guys without a ton of experience.

One way for a less talented team to pull an upset is creating havoc on defense, sacks, tackles for loss, pass breakups and turnovers. Getting into the backfield is a sure fire way of creating havoc. If the Cyclones front can’t protect Purdy or create blocking lanes for Breece Hall, Iowa State could be on upset alert.

Defensively they need to slow down the Ragin’ Cajuns’ rushing attack.

Stopping the duo of Ragas and Mitchell is too much to ask for, but keeping them in check will be very important and try to make Levi Lewis beat you.

Good tackling for the Cyclones is also going to be very important. With the concerns of teams not hitting as much in practice the idea of defenses being in bad tackling form as been floating out there. Wrapping up Ragas and Mitchell and not letting them break for big runs will be huge for this defense.

For Louisiana to pull the upset, winning the battle in the trenches is a near must. If the defensive line can get pressure on Purdy, force him to make mistakes and create a few turnovers, the Cajuns have a shot of pulling out a win.

Not letting the Cyclones front get into the backfield and letting Ragas and Mitchell run wild is key for this offensive line. If those two get going and start breaking tackles and going on long runs, the Cajuns have a real shot.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of The Action Network

Point Spread: Iowa State -12.5
Total: 56.5

Prediction

Last year Iowa State had a near scare to open their season off against Northern Iowa. I think we could be in store for another close game here. Bill Napier has done wonders at Louisiana and should be getting an offer from a Power Five program soon. There’s a lot of returning guys on both sides of the ball for the Cajuns and this year’s team should compete for the Sun Belt again.

I’m high on this Iowa State team, as are a lot of people, and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the Big 12, but opening up against this dynamic Ragin’ Cajuns offense is going to be very tough. I think the Cyclones pull this one out but the Cajuns will be in it from kickoff until the end.

Final Score: Iowa State 31, Louisiana 28