Baylor football could be on upset alert in opener vs. Houston

Baylor football opens its 2020 season against a pesky Houston team and the Bears could be on upset alert against the in-state foe.

Even through the most chaotic times of 2020, no situations may be more confusing than in Waco and Houston. Two teams that are in one way similar, yet the complete opposite at the same time. What may be more of an anomaly is the connection these two head coaches have.

Baylor is used to playing against Dana Holgorson, back when he was the Head Coach at West Virginia from 2011-18. Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is no stranger with Holgorsen either.

From 2000-02, both were apart of Texas Tech’s coaching staff, with Holgorsen being the receivers coach, while Aranda was serving as a grad assistant, before ironically taking the assistant coaching job at Houston in 2003 as linebackers coach under Art Briles.

Two teams that were suppose to play in Week 2, both got cancelled due to COVID-19 concerns. Baylor’s game vs. Louisiana Tech got cancelled last Wednesday, while Houston’s contest against Memphis got cancelled just hours prior to kickoff, last Saturday.

Within the span of 12 hours for the Cougars, it went from playing in Memphis that morning to playing Baylor next week in Waco.

Coming off an 11-3 campaign last year that featured a Big 12 title game and Sugar Bowl appearance, many of the country are viewing Baylor and 2020 as a “rebuilding season”. Dave Aranda’s first game coaching the Bears will be a tall task as they replace nine defensive starters and bring an entirely new coaching staff with no spring ball to prepare.

The Bears do bring back a lot of returning production on the offensive side from a year ago. Four-year starting quarterback Charlie Brewer returns with his leading rusher, John Lovett, as well as, two of the top three receiving targets from a year ago in juniors Tyquan Thornton and RJ Sneed.

For Houston, it was a rare occasion, when the Cougars finished 4-8 on the season, 2-6 in conference play. There is reason for optimism in Houston as the Cougars, like the Bears, bring back quite a bit of firepower, as well as, players who redshirted or transferred into the program in 2019.

Quarterback Clayton Tune returns for his junior campaign, while heralded around him are playmakers like former Texas transfer running back Kyle Porter, receiver Marquez Stevenson and receiver Keith Corbin.

Defensively, Houston was not very good, ranking 111th according to S&P+ in total defense and constantly gave up big plays.

Here’s how you can watch Saturday’s contest between the Bears and Cougars.

Date: Sept. 19
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Waco, Texas
Venue: McLane Stadium
TV: FOX
Live Stream: FOX Sports Go

Keys to Victory

The battle between both team’s lineman will ultimately be who decides this contest. Clayton Tune was under constant duress last season and had a five percent turnover rate over attempted passes.

Baylor brings in 3 brand new linemen in this 3-3-5 hybrid scheme that Dave Aranda plans to run. How Baylor fares against a relatively weak offensive line will be a key factor in pressuring Tune and his duo of running backs.

Baylor also had offensive line troubles last year, but with former North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora taking the reins as the new offensive coordinator, the Bears plan on limiting issues. Fedora likes to utilize getting the football out of the quarterback’s hands as quick as possible in order to limit sacks and pressures.

Houston’s major key to victory is how well their wide receivers can make plays against a relatively inexperienced secondary. Houston’s receiver room would be among one of the better Power Five groups, let alone non-Power Five. Baylor brings back one true starter in the secondary, but has experienced players in juniors safety Christian Morgan, J.T. Woods and cornerback Kalon Barnes.

How much Stevenson, Corbin and Bryson Smith can separate and make plays for Tune will be crucial in pulling off the upset.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of The Action Network

Point Spread: Baylor -4.5
Over/Under: 61.5

Prediction

One of the hardest weeks to pick games are the first ones, because of the uncertainty of how a team displays their team on the field, rather than on paper. It becomes even more of a struggle with a brand new staff and spring practices cancelled.

Even with all of that being said, Baylor is the more talented team, the deeper team in certain areas, and the team less likely to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties.

Houston is a talented Group of Five team, with a lot of new and experienced faces playing their first games either with the program or after transferring in. This will be a relatively high-scoring game, but one the Bears will win.

Final Score: Baylor 35, Houston 24