Iowa State football faces potential must-win situation vs. TCU

After their disappointing upset loss to Louisiana, Iowa State football starts Big 12 play against TCU. This is a must-win for the Cyclones.

Coming into the college football season, Iowa State was riding high with being ranked No. 23 in the country and feeling like they could compete for a Big 12 title. All that changed after Louisiana defeated the Cyclones 31-14 on their home turf.

Now, many are questioning how good Iowa State will be this season.

TCU was set for a bounce-back season after ending the 2019 season with a 5-7 season, the worst season under head coach Gary Patterson since 2013 when they went 4-8. The bad news started last month when they found out starting quarterback Max Duggan had a heart condition that might prevent him from playing. It’s topped off by their season opener against SMU being postponed due to 19 positive COVID-19 cases on their team.

While it might be too early to jump the gun on this topic, but both are in need of a strong start to conference play. Iowa State is looking to erase the memory of their home opener. For TCU, it’s their first game of the season, and haven’t had as much practice and playing time as others in the Big 12.

It’s a critical conference opener for both teams trying to rebound in their own ways. While it looks like Iowa State has the advantage on paper, there’s no telling what this TCU team could look like with new faces on both sides of the ball.

Here’s everything you need to know for Saturday’s Iowa State-TCU matchup:

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
TV: FS1
Live Stream: FOX Sports Go

Keys to Victory

Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy must get off to a fast start. He had one of his worst games at Iowa State with a QBR of 24.8, 145 passing yards, and one interception against Louisiana. He racked up nearly 350 yards total offense and four total touchdowns in a 49-24 blowout win over TCU last season. If anyone is looking for a bounce-back game, it’s Purdy.

The slow start in game one hurt Iowa State, but big plays to begin their game against TCU Saturday should position Purdy for a big day through the air.

With TCU naming Matthew Browning the starting quarterback for this one, Iowa State must pressure him often. The Cyclones were able to get to Louisiana quarterback Levi Lewis for three sacks in Week 2. Browning played four games at Georgia two years ago and didn’t play last season after transferring to TCU.

Iowa State’s front four led by Will McDonald IV, Joshua Bailey, and JaQuan Bailey could have a field day with a TCU offensive line returning only one starter from last season.

The Horned Frogs’ young backfield will be relied on to help their inexperienced quarterback get into the rhythm of the game. Their projected running backs Darwin Barlow and Daimarqua Foster are both freshmen with limited to no experience. Barlow is the leading returning running back with 99 rushing yards and one score last season. Browning might need time to get acquainted with being on the field so a strong running game could go a long way for the Horned Frogs.

TCU’s secondary has the tough challenge of slowing down a potentially dangerous Iowa State passing game. Iowa State tight end Charlie Kolar is expected to return from injury which gives the Cyclones some much needed firepower. The Horned Frogs are returning one starter from the secondary from last season. They better be prepared for Purdy to coming back with motivation after having success on TCU last season.

If TCU can’t slow down Iowa State’s offense, it could be another major deficit to fight back from for them.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of The Action Network

Point Spread: Iowa State -2
Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction

So far, Iowa State has not reached expectations as every loss means less of a chance for the Cyclones to make the College Football Playoff. This matchup with TCU could set the tone for how the rest of the season goes for them in the Big 12. Another loss will be fatal of any chances of a Big 12 title.

TCU hasn’t been on the field all season with college football starting almost a month ago. There are many questions to a team that lost 17 starters from a year ago. The Horned Frogs will need time to grow together as a team with the lack of practices which has them behind the sticks to start their season.

Iowa State has a chance of bouncing back in a big way against a young TCU football team.

Final Score: Iowa State 28, TCU 17