Louisville Football: Don’t sleep on the Cardinals vs. Pitt in Week 4

Louisville football is looking to get its first conference win of the year but it won’t be easy going up against this tough Pitt defense.

Louisville is fresh off a tough loss to Miami last week and needs to get back on track if the Cardinals want to have a shot at making the ACC title game.

Looking at the final score you’d think Louisville’s defense was awful. Miami had 485 total yards on offense and scored 47 points. They definitely weren’t good but diving a bit deeper into the box score, a lot of Miami’s offense came from a few explosive plays.

Running back Cam’Ron Harris rushed for 134 yards on just nine carries, but 113 of them came from two huge runs for 75 and 38 yards. Besides those two plays his runs were as follows: -2, -1, 18, 2, 4 and 2 yards. The 75-yard touchdown run came from more of a miscommunication on defense by the Cardinals. A pre-snap motion from a Miami receiver brought Louisville’s lone defensive back on the right side of the field over to the left and Harris was able to make one cut to the outside and get the edge where he then had a complete wide open field.

Not defending Louisville’s mistakes but I think the box score is a bid misleading with how bad the defense actually was. I think these mistakes come more from lack of practices and it still being early in the season rather than just having a bad defense.

Louisville’s offense looked good against what was expected to be a very tough Miami defense coming into the season. Micale Cunningham was 26/36 for 307 yards and three touchdowns. Javian Hawkins was the story though running for 164 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. Tutu Atwell got going big reeling in eight catches for 114 yards and two scores. This Cunningham, Hawkins, Atwell trio is super dangerous and Louisville is never out of the game as long as those three guys are lining up. Louisville’s offense is super explosive ranking 11th in the country in yards per play averaging 6.2.

Pitt is off to a 2-0 start and looking for their first 3-0 opening since 2014. Defensively, they’ve been great as expected. They’ve given up a total of 308 yards and 10 points. This Louisville offense is going to be their first real test. Syracuse may have the worst offense in the ACC and arguably the worst offensive line in the entire country while Austin Peay is an FCS program.

Up front, the duo of Patrick Jones and Rashad Weaver at defensive end may be the best pairing in the ACC. Damar Hamlin and Paris Ford have been lockdown guys in the secondary, Ford has an interception in each game so far. It’s tough to know how good this defense can be going up against clearly inferior offenses.

On the other side of the ball Kenny Pickett has been good, not great, thus far. Pitt’s offense didn’t look particularly good against Syracuse. They seemed to stall out and weren’t explosive at all. They averaged 4.1 yards per play last week which was bottom seven of every team that has played so far. The ground game was awful averaging 2.9 yards per carry against a Syracuse front that was gashed by North Carolina the week before.

Pitt’s offense is going to have to have their best performance of the year to keep up with Louisville.

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Pittsburgh, Penn.
Venue: Heinz Field
TV: ACC Network
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For Louisville, it has to limit mistakes defensively and on special teams. I know that sounds obvious but it really is the little things that have led to teams putting up points. Against Western Kentucky, 14 of the Hilltoppers 21 points came on short drives due to a muffed punt and a blocked punt. Against Miami, as mentioned earlier, it was the big explosive plays that led to the majority of the Hurricanes’ points.

Good thing for the Cardinals is that Pitt’s offense so far is one of the least explosive groups in the country. In 2019, they also ranked towards the back end in yards per play, ranking 100th out of 130 FBS schools. According to Football Outsiders, Offensive Explosive Drive Rate (OED) is a metric that looks at the percentage of drives that average 10 yards per play. Last week, Pitt’s OED was 0.07, only one of their 14 drives averaged 10 plus yards per play. Looking at last year’s rankings that would’ve been bottom 10 in the country.

Offensively is where the Cardinals need to show out to win. Micale Cunningham, Javian Hawkins and Tutu Atwell are good enough to put points on the board even against this Pitt defense. The offensive line has to have the best game of the season for that to happen though. They aren’t going to keep Pitt’s defensive front out all game, but they need to give Cunningham enough time in the pocket to make something happen as well as give Hawkins enough open lanes.

For Pitt time of possession will be key. Keeping Louisville’s offense off the field and their defense rested should be the goal. To do that they’ll need to go on long drives and wear down Louisville’s defense. Getting the running game going is super important for the Panthers. If they can go on long sustained drives that put up points and limit the amount of time Cunningham has the ball in his hands, they’ll be in good shape.

Defensively, they have to get pressure. Pitt’s biggest advantage is their defensive front versus Louisville’s offensive line. They need to win that battle to try and keep the Cardinals’ explosive offense at bay.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of The Action Network

Point Spread: Pitt -3
Total: 55

Prediction

I like Louisville in this spot and think they win the game outright. Their defense is better than what the last two box scores make them out to be.

I like their linebacking duo of Dorian Ethereidge and C.J. Avery, those two will be key against Pitt’s offense that relies on short gains.

I’m not ready to put faith in Pitt’s offense yet. They struggled against Syracuse and I don’t believe the Orange have that much better of a defense than Louisville. Pitt’s defense has yet to really be tested this year and I believe Louisville’s offense will be able to create enough explosive plays that put points on the board to come out with the win.

One of the top offenses in the conference versus one of the top defenses? Can’t ask for anything better.

Final Score: Louisville 27, Pitt 20