Oklahoma State Football: Upset could be in the cards vs. West Virginia

West Virginia and Oklahoma State football open up Big 12 play in Stillwater. With the health of Spencer Sanders up in the air, an upset could be on the way.

Oklahoma State pulled out an ugly win over Tulsa to start their season.

Quarterback Spencer Sanders went down with an ankle injury in the first quarter and never returned. His status is questionable as of Friday morning and it looks like head coach Mike Gundy is playing this close to the vest. The latest reports from Gundy were that Sanders has been in a walking boot and will attempt to take it off on Wednesday at practice and see how he feels.

Once Sanders went down the offense really struggled. The Cowboys’ two top playmakers, running back Chuba Hubbard and receiver Tylan Wallace, barely had any impact. Hubbard was forced to go up against a stacked box almost every time he was given the ball. He was able to get to 94 yards but just had a 3.4 yards per carry average.

Once Sanders went down and Ethan Bullock came in, the offense couldn’t do anything. They gained 51 yards on the next seven drives combined followed by a 40-yard drive that ended with a Bullock interception. Freshman Shane Illingworth was brought in and looked good. The former four-star recruit got the offense rolling a little leading three straight scoring drives that brought the Cowboys back and led them to the win.

On the defensive side of the ball, Oklahoma State was very good. They contained a Tulsa offense that had some hype coming into the season led by quarterback Zach Smith, who multiple scouts say has NFL potential. The most impressive aspect of the game was Oklahoma State’s dominance on third down, forcing Tulsa to go 0-12 there.

Oklahoma State has been known as an offensive juggernaut for years under Gundy, but the defensive performance was what really stood out from last Saturday. Without that dominant showing, the Cowboys could have easily lose that game.

After their second losing season since 2001, in a roster transition year last season, Neal Brown and the Mountaineers are looking to pull off an early conference upset. West Virginia was off last week after opening up their season with a 56-10 win over Eastern Kentucky.

Brown is now in his second year coaching in Morgantown and his “air-raidish” offense looked good two weeks ago. Granted it was against Eastern Kentucky, but former Bowling Green transfer quarterback Jarret Doege threw for three touchdowns and the ground game looked very strong. Leddie Brown and Alec Sinkfield each ran for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Brown runs the ball more than a traditional air raid attack, but the basic concepts of the scheme remain.

West Virginia often uses four-receiver sets and looks to stretch out the defense as much as possible. Getting a strong running game going is key for this offense after being dreadful on the ground last season. They averaged just 73.3 yards a game which was 128th in the country.

On the defensive side of the ball, West Virginia lost a lot of talent in the secondary but still will be a tough unit. Upfront the brother duo of Darius and Dante Stills are one of the better defensive tackle pairings in the conference. Both have made preseason All Big-12 teams and Darius could be one of the first defensive tackles off the board come draft day.

Arizona grad transfer linebacker Tony Fields II led the Mountaineers in tackles against Eastern Kentucky with 10. Fields showing out really helps out the linebacking corps. He’s listed as a starter at the mike spot this week with senior Dylan Tonkery now as the backup — WVU has solid depth at linebacker.

Losing five of eleven defensive backs from last year hurts a secondary that’s gonna be tested against the pass-heavy teams in the Big 12.

We’ll see how much Oklahoma State attacks this group Saturday.

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Stillwater, Okla.
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium
TV: ABC
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For Oklahoma State they need to get Hubbard going, and that starts with the offensive line. Regardless of if Sanders plays or not, Hubbard is a major part of their offense this week and for the rest of the season. If Sanders plays, he likely won’t be 100 percent and obviously without him, Hubbard becomes more important.

The offensive line wasn’t good last week, Tulsa had 14 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. West Virginia has a very talented defensive front and if they’re in the backfield all day, Oklahoma State is going to struggle to win this game. The line needs to be much better and give Chuba more holes to make plays. He needs to be better as well, he’s going to be a focal point of Oklahoma State’s offense and needs to play like the Chuba of last year.

Defensively, dominating on third down will be huge. If Oklahoma State can post numbers like it did last week against Tulsa, it should be in very good shape. I don’t expect West Virginia to be explosive enough on offense on early downs to be able to overcome being shut down on third.

For West Virginia dominating on the ground should be the goal. Last week Oklahoma State gave up 82 yards on a 5.9 average to Tulsa running back Deneric Prince, who only started because presumed starter Shamari Brooks suffered an ACL tear. With how good Brown and Sinkfield looked in their first game, getting them going early will be important for WVU to pull off the upset.

Doege limiting mistakes is a must. He didn’t have any issues with that against Eastern Kentucky, but the Mountaineers were up big all game anyway. Last year Doege threw three interceptions against TCU, West Virginia was still able to pull out the win, but giving Oklahoma State’s offense extra possessions is never a good idea. That’s why establishing the run becomes even more important so Doege isn’t forced into playing hero ball and making bad decisions.

Defensively, getting into the backfield has to be the top priority. Oklahoma State’s offensive line really struggled last week against a much worse defensive front that had barely practiced.

The Still brothers and Co. should be able to cause a ton of havoc in the Cowboys’ backfield. Dominating upfront and limiting Hubbard should be the goal. If Sanders is able to start he likely won’t be 100 percent and not the normal elusive, speedy quarterback we’re used to seeing, giving the Mountaineers front more opportunities to get to him and force mistakes.

If freshman Shane Illingworth gets the start, he could have a bit of happy feet and getting pressure on him could lead to him turning the ball over.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of The Action Network 

Point Spread: Oklahoma State -7.5
Total: 51.5

Prediction

I think this game is going to be very close and West Virginia has a real shot to pull off the upset. With the Spencer Sanders injury still in question, we may not find out who’s starting for Oklahoma State until late in the week. West Virginia has an advantage upfront in the trenches with their defensive front.

If Oklahoma State’s offensive line struggles again it’s going to be tough to get much going offensively. So much of Oklahoma State’s offense is predicated on Sanders playing. Having Sanders and Hubbard together gives this offense so many options and they lose a ton of explosiveness if Sanders isn’t able to go.

Even though Illingworth looked good against Tulsa, going up against a hungry West Virginia team whose been prepping for this matchup for two weeks is a much tougher ask for the freshman.

We’ll really get to see if West Virginia’s offense is legit at all this week. I’m not ready to say West Virginia will pull off the upset with Sanders not being ruled out yet, but I think this will be a real scare for Oklahoma State.

Final Score: Oklahoma State 27, West Virginia 21