Ole Miss football: Shootout vs. Kentucky could play in Rebels’ favor

Kentucky and Ole Miss football are each looking for their first win of the season when they get together in Lexington on Saturday.

Kentucky was a popular underdog pick last week against Auburn and the Wildcats looked like they could pull off the upset in the first half.

In a very weird sequence, Kentucky looked like they scored a touchdown that would have put it up 14-8 and they would be receiving the second half kickoff as well. That touchdown was reviewed and eventually overturned. Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson then threw an interception at the goal line that was returned for a touchdown in what would have been a huge momentum swing. The return was called back due to a targeting foul on a block.

Wilson and Kentucky didn’t look the same in the second half, getting outscored 21-6. Even though Wilson struggled, there were some bright spots offensively that came out of this game. Running back Kavosiey Smoke rushed for 62 yards and a touchdown on seven carries while receiver Josh Ali reeled in nine balls for 98 yards. The run game was huge for Kentucky last year, granted a lot of it came from mobile quarterback Lynn Bowden Jr., but getting Smoke going to pair with Wilson’s ability to run is a good sign.

The Wildcats’ offensive line was expected to be one of the best units in the conference, but struggled a bit against a retooled Auburn defensive front.

Kentucky looked great defensively in the first half as Bo Nix was just 6-for-11 for 90 yards. In the second half, Nix and Seth Williams got a connection going; Williams had three catches for 40 yards and two touchdowns late. Kentucky was one of the most talented defenses in the SEC in 2018 but lost a ton of production from that unit last year. They are still not back to that 2018 group, but as the season progresses the defense should get better.

The Lane (Kiffin) Train got going in Oxford last week against the Gators. Ole Miss was trading blows early, responding to every Florida touchdown with a big play of its own. It was 14-14 before the Gators ripped off three straight touchdown drives that put them up big.

Matt Corral got the starting call at quarterback over the dual threat John Rhys Plumlee. He was 22-for-31 for 395 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Nearly half of his passes were caught by junior Elijah Moore who had 10 receptions for 227 yards. Kiffin’s offense looks like it’s going to work with Ole Miss and the Rebels should be a fun team to watch this year.

The defense is another story. Last week the Gators had 642 total yards on offense. Ole Miss could put up a lot of points this year, but they’re going to be giving up a ton, too. The secondary was an area of concern coming into the season and we saw why. Gators quarterback Kyle Trask torched that group throwing for 416 yards and six touchdowns.

Here’s how you can watch Saturday’s game:

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: Lexington, Ky.
Venue: Kroger Field
TV: SEC Network
Livestream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

Terry Wilson needs to get going. He missed the majority of last year due to injuries. It might have been first game jitters but Wilson needs to get back to his 2018 self that led the Cats to a 10-win season. He’ll have the chance to do that against this Rebels defense that so far looks like the worst in the conference.

Kentucky’s secondary has to be a lot better than they were against Seth Williams. He had six catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns. This week the Cat’s secondary gets Elijiah Moore, off his 10-catch, 227-yard output against the Gators. Matt Corral can sling the ball around and if Moore is running free all day Kentucky will be in trouble.

Ole Miss has to put up points. I’m not expecting their defense to stop Kentucky so the Rebels need to get close to 30 to have a shot at pulling the upset. Defensively creating havoc and forcing Terry Wilson to make mistakes should be key. When Auburn got pressure on Wilson he struggled. If the Rebels can somewhat replicate that they could have a shot.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of The Action Network

Spread: Kentucky -6.5
Over/Under: 61.5

Prediction

I’m expecting this game to turn into a shootout, which could be a lot of Ole Miss games this year. Their defense isn’t ready to compete against any non bottom-tier SEC offense. If there’s any game for Terry Wilson to show out, it’s this one. He got some of the rust off against Auburn and the Kentucky offense should be able to get right here.

Kentucky’s defense isn’t the same monster unit from a couple of years ago and I think the Ole Miss offense will be able to score points on them. I could see this game being similar to the first half of the Florida vs. Ole Miss game where each offense is trading touchdowns early on. Kentucky’s defense is better than Ole Miss’s and I think they’ll get a few key stops throughout the game that prevents the Rebels from pulling the upset.

This game could turn into a really fun one with a ton of points. Kentucky should be able to get their first win of the season here.

Final Score: Kentucky 38, Ole Miss 31