Wisconsin Football: It’s time for the Graham Mertz show vs. Illinois

Illinois and Wisconsin football kick off 2020 Big Ten play on Friday night in Madison. Will the Badgers take care of business?

Big Ten play begins on Friday night as Illinois travels to Madison to take on No. 14 Wisconsin. This game will bring plenty of storylines for both teams and the conference, but it’ll be an excellent weekend appetizer for college football fans.

The meetings between the Badgers and the Illini have been almost completely one-sided in favor of Wisconsin. The Badgers are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings versus the Illini as well as 13-2 in the last 15 showdowns. Last season, however, the Illini surprised the then-undefeated No. 6 Badgers with a 24-23 upset.

The Badgers led as much as 13 early in the third quarter against the Illini. The Badgers’ three turnovers were crucial as the Illini scored 10 points in the last six minutes of the game to beat Wisconsin. This was the first loss of the season at that point for Wisconsin as they would go on the following week to lose 38-7 at Ohio State.

The Badgers have been serious College Football Playoff contenders over the past five years with Paul Chryst as head coach. Wisconsin has won three of the last four Big Ten West titles (2016, 2017 and 2019) but has not been able to win the Big Ten title. The Badgers are looking to make that first step to win the West and the conference again.

Illinois has found limited success since winning the Big Ten in 2001. That victory over the Badgers last year handed the Illini their first bowl appearance since 2014. Head coach Lovie Smith was on the hot seat because the program didn’t see much progress.

The Illini have an experienced offensive line and linebacking corps that made a significant impact last season. The line did give up 39 sacks in 2019 and quarterback Brandon Peters did not show serious high-caliber potential. He does have a chance to grow and develop into a more efficient quarterback especially with many of his targets from last year returning.

Wisconsin has shown to be a top-level Big Ten contender that can reload at every position but they will have trouble reloading several key positions. They will miss their second all-time rushing yards leader in Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 6,145 yards. Outside linebacker Zach Baun accounted for 19.5 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks last season and is now in the NFL.

The Badgers are expected to start redshirt freshman Graham Mertz at quarterback as Jack Coan is recovering from a foot injury. They will need senior running back Garrett Groshek to step up to relieve the pressure from Mertz — or sophomore Nakia Watson. This puts a lot of pressure on Groshek to replace a program building running back like Taylor especially with him having only rushed 42 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns last season.

Here’s how you can watch Saturday night’s matchup between the Badgers and Illini.

Date: Friday, Oct. 23
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Madison, Wisc.
Venue: Camp Randall Stadium
TV: Big Ten Network
Live Stream: FOX Sports Go

Keys to Victory

With an offense that is scattered with returning starters, the Badgers must be careful with how they play against an Illini defense that is experienced in their linebackers and secondary.

They will have to establish some pressure in the passing game even with Mertz filling in as the starter. They can do that by relying on junior tight end Jake Ferguson, who caught 33 passes for 407 yards and two touchdowns last season.

Illinois can limit the Badgers’ offense by shutting down the run game. It will have to do better this season in their run defense as it was ranked 87th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game last year (144.2). They will miss their leading tackler in Oluwole Betiku, who accounted for 153 total tackles, which was second in the nation and first in the Big Ten.

They will rely on junior safety Sydney Brown, who was second on the team in total tackles (88) and solos (51).

The Badgers return nine starters from last season’s defense that was ranked 10th in the nation in points allowed per game (16.9) and fourth in total yards allowed per game (261.4). They return five starters from the secondary including senior free safety Eric Burrell, who is an Athlon Sports preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection.

The Illini offense will look to win key matchups against the Badgers’ efficient defense. Wisconsin middle linebacker Jack Sanborn will be a key player for the defense against Illinois as he accounted for 80 total tackles, nine tackles for loss and three interceptions.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of The Action Network

Point Spread: Wisconsin -19.5
Over/Under: 51

Prediction

It’s tough to determine what kind of team the No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers are with a new set of players at key positions on offense. The lack of spring ball due to COVID-19 doesn’t help either team with the development process. The Badgers have the experience on defense, especially their secondary, to shut down the opponents.

They may not have the same elite rushing game as in the past couple of seasons, but they have a talented offense to spread the ball around. The Illini don’t quite have the same amount of talented players with the potential to help their team contend for the West.

Final Score: Wisconsin 31, Illinois 13