Indiana football facing potential trap game at Michigan State in Week 11

Indiana football is looking to keep dream season alive with a road trip to East Lansing to face a desperate Michigan State squad.

For the first time since 1988, Indiana is off to a 3-0 start in Big Ten play as they have been the biggest surprise in 2020. After shocking the country in their opener against Penn State, the Hoosiers dismantled Michigan, to the tune of a 38-21 final.

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had his most impressive game of the season, throwing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, with no turnovers. Penix’s biggest asset he used was his ability to hard count and get the Wolverines offsides.

Penix was successful in this three times, two of them being touchdown passes to wide receivers Ty Fryfogle and Miles Marshall. The Hoosiers were solid on the ground as running back Stevie Scott finished with 97 yards and two touchdowns on just 24 carries.

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The most impressive part of their win was with defense. The suffocated the Michigan run game (13 yards on 18 carries) and forced Joe Milton’s first two turnovers of the season in the fourth quarter to seal the game.

For Michigan State, last week was a nightmare after their rivalry win over Michigan the week prior. After an embarrassing loss to Rutgers in the opener, the momentum seemed to shift in the Spartans favor after the Michigan win. Iowa had different plans as they thrashed Michigan State.

Rocky Lombardi had by far his worst performance of the season, completing 46 percent of his passes and three interceptions in the process. Michigan State’s run game was well below average (59 yards) and the Spartans were dominated in all three aspects of the game.

Iowa punt returner Charlie Jones had a field day, piling up 105 return yards, including a punt return touchdown.

One of the big bright spots has been the wide receiver play from sophomore Jalen Nailor and freshman Ricky White. Those two and Jayden Reed has been Lombardi’s go-to players. Nailor and White are big-play threats, racking up over 22 yards per catch.

Both of these teams are trending in different directions and this is not the start Mel Tucker wanted in East Lansing. However, this is a golden opportunity for Michigan State to bring some hope into this season with limited turnovers from Lombardi and a better run defense effort.

For Indiana, you have been playing with house money basically all of this season so far. The Hoosiers were not expected to be this good and are already sitting with a top 10 ranking three games into the season. Although Michigan does not look to be very good, playing a complete game like that gives confidence and momentum for the Hoosiers.

Here’s how to watch the matchup between the Hoosiers and Spartans.

Date: Saturday, Nov. 14
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: East Lansing, Mich.
Venue: Spartan Stadium
TV: ABC
Stream: WatchESPN or FuboTV

Keys to Victory

For majority of surprising teams throughout the years, this is a perfect spot for a let down. Being undefeated and in rare placement of the AP can get to some teams psychologically. Indiana at this point in time is the frontrunner behind Ohio State for the Big Ten East, something only 2020 can provide.

With only playing an eight game schedule and a date with Ohio State next week, Indiana can absolutely not be caught looking ahead. It’s brutal ahead and the next few weeks will truly determine if this Indiana team is for real. For now however, the task at hand is to play suffocating run defense and get big playmakers like Fryfogle and Marshall down field.

For the Spartans, they have to find a way to keep Indiana contained in the red zone. A big part of the Hoosiers success has been their efficiency in the red zone. They have been perfect in the red zone as they have scored on every single possession that they have been in that area.

After letting Iowa run all over them, having Scott and a decent runner in Penix in the backfield might be an issue. Another key will be the good Lombardi absolutely has to play in order to win. The one that took deep shots to Nailor and White and was terrific on third down.

If he plays anything like last week, Indiana might have the back-ups in by the fourth quarter.

Prediction

With the inconsistency of Michigan State through the first three weeks, there isn’t much of a sense in trust with the Spartans. After rushing for just 59 yards last week, you’re facing a team that forced Michigan to completely give up on the run. An area that Michigan is suppose to be dominant at and what Harbaugh has attempted to fix permanently, since his tenure started in Ann Arbor.

Penix Jr. has been efficient this year and rarely turns the ball over. Stealing possessions will be the difference as Indiana isn’t caught looking ahead to next week and takes care of the Spartans on the road.

Final Score: Indiana 31, Michigan State 21