Iowa State Football: How Cyclones can reach College Football Playoff

In the latest batch of College Football Playoff rankings, Iowa State football is No. 7 and if these things happen, the Cyclones could make the final four.

At the start of the season, few would have expected Iowa State football to still be in contention for the College Football Playoff with two weeks to go, but following the latest release of the playoff rankings, the Cyclones are right in the mix for the top four.

Certainly, the 8-2 Cyclones have a lot of work to do with the Big 12 championship game on the horizon. They will also need some help but after Iowa State football jumped unbeaten Cincinnati in Tuesday’s rankings, a playoff spot seems much more possible.

While not many are giving Cincinnati a shot at cracking the final four, there was some thought that the Bearcats would be among the teams next in line if things got crazy. But now, it looks as though a two-loss Iowa State football team would take precedence.

And with four of the top six teams set to play each other next Saturday, there could be just enough movement to get the Cyclones into the top four if the following three things happen:

1. Notre Dame upsets Clemson

One scenario that would make it almost impossible for Iowa State to reach the playoff is having two teams from the ACC make it, which is likely what would happen if Clemson is able to beat Notre Dame in the ACC title game next week.

The Irish will have just one loss at that point and with their win over Clemson, as well as a victory over North Carolina, their resume is pretty strong. And if the loss to Clemson and Trevor Lawrence is close, it will be hard to keep the Irish out of the top four.

But if Clemson were to lose to Notre Dame, with Lawrence at quarterback, that would have to eliminate them from contention. You could argue Clemson is better than Iowa State I suppose still, but if the Cyclones win the Big 12, which would give them a second win over Oklahoma, as well as a victory over Texas, they would have a strong case to make.

Yet, Iowa State would need more help than just a Notre Dame upset.

2. Alabama has to beat Florida

In the SEC title game, Iowa State football isn’t going to need an upset, which is probably a good thing, it just needs Alabama to take the crown and eliminate Florida from playoff contention.

The Gators, who have one loss at this point, are ranked one spot ahead of Iowa State and if they were able to knock off the Tide, they would be a guarantee for the playoff.

In that scenario, it would be Florida, Clemson (assuming it beats ND), Ohio State and either Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas A&M or Iowa State. The Cyclones would be the only team in that group to win a conference title, but the second loss probably makes it hard to overtake Bama or Notre Dame.

Thus, it would be better for Iowa State to have Clemson and Florida get a second loss. Then, the Cyclones would have a real case to make.

3. Beat Oklahoma, plus another upset

Obviously, nothing will matter unless Iowa State is able to take care of business against Oklahoma in the conference title game. So winning that is the first priority.

But if Iowa State could do that and do it impressively (a big ask I know) it could have a real chance at overtaking the other remaining contender which would be Texas A&M, assuming Notre Dame beats Clemson and Bama beats Florida.

The Aggies have just one loss this year and that was a 52-24 defeat by Alabama. But they did knock off Florida, which is an impressive win. However, how would that compare to Iowa State which would have three top-20 wins at that point?

Yes, ISU lost to Louisiana and Oklahoma State, but those teams are both ranked right now and it might not hurt them as much as some might think.

And if Texas A&M, which is scheduled to play Tennessee somehow slips up, coupled with a Notre Dame win over Clemson and a Bama win over Florida, Iowa State should get in, assuming the Cyclones win their first conference title in over a century which is still a big if.