College Football Playoff: Could semifinals be an ACC-SEC Showdown?

If there are a couple of upsets this weekend, could the ACC and SEC each get two teams in the National Semifinal? 

The short answer is no; it will not happen—the College Football Playoff committee change several things every season.

No one knows the exact criteria the committee uses to get into the playoff. When is head to head more important than a conference championship? When is the strength of record more critical than either? Only the committee knows what data points are valued and when.

There are a few pieces of criterion the committee has been relatively staunch about.

The committee has been unwavering on a few. If there is an undefeated or one-loss team, a two-loss team will not get into the playoff. Though it is not an “official” rule, the Group of Five reward for a good season is the New Year’s Six at-large bid.

Next weekend, Notre Dame and Clemson play in a rematch of their regular-season classic, and Alabama plays Florida for the SEC championship.

It is difficult to imagine either of these games being blowouts the other way; that is, however, why you play the game.

If Clemson blows the doors off of Notre Dame by four or five touchdowns and Alabama loses by the same margin, Ohio State is sitting as the fourth seed. It is hard to imagine the undefeated Buckeyes getting booted if the Tigers and Gators win convincingly. A blowout could eliminate Notre Dame.

Both of these games are likely competitive and live up to-or at least are close– their billing. If both Clemson/Notre Dame and Alabama/Florida are barn burners, that is when things might get dicey for the Buckeyes.

Going by the Committee’s words, a team that did not play a full schedule would not be penalized and looked at equally to a team that has played ten or more games. Ohio State and Notre Dame are as box office as one another, so not much viewership is lost in a semifinal without the Irish or Buckeyes.

What then, is the counter argument for an ACC-SEC playoff?

For the committee to bounce a team that it has had fourth since the initial rankings in week 13, the committee would have to look at quality wins as its primary criteria.

Even if Notre Dame loses, it has one of the best wins of the season against Clemson. Conversely, Clemson would have that win back against Notre Dame.

Ohio State’s best win? Indiana. Florida would have the Alabama win, and Alabama would have wins against both Texas A&M and Georgia. No disrespect to what Tom Allen has done in Bloomington, but both wins the Tide have are better.

Though the committee has come out and said that they would not leave out an undefeated conference champion, that could be the argument to leave Ohio State out of the equation; unfortunately for the Buckeyes, that would be a situation the data points would come back to haunt them.

However, if Ohio State plays its entire schedule, the result might not be much different if the committee looks at quality wins.

Ohio State had Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan canceled due to COVID-19. Those teams are a combined 6-10; none of those wins stack up against the other four if Clemson and Florida win. In addition to Indiana playing Ohio State close, Rutgers gave it a go against the Buckeyes.

What is the dream scenario for the Committee?

Alabama wins. Suppose the Tide win championship weekend, all of the committee’s problems are solved. Florida has two losses and is eliminated from playoff contention. Even if Notre Dame and Clemson split, both get in unless Notre Dame gets obliterated by the Tigers. Even a two or three-touchdown loss will not hurt the Irish if it is close for a half or three quarters.

Though Texas A&M is sitting at five, they were not competitive against Alabama. A game that gets out of hand late shouldn’t hurt the Irish.

The committee is holding out hope for chalk. If chalk holds, then they have their four.