Notre Dame Football: Will Irish shock the nation with win over Alabama?

The Rose Bowl is a rematch of the 2012 BCS national title game and this playoff game once again finds Notre Dame football as a huge underdog to Alabama.

For only the second time ever, the Rose Bowl will be played at a venue that is not the actual Rose Bowl. The 2021 Rose Bowl has been moved to Dallas due to the  COVID-19 pandemic and it will pit two of the most legendary programs in college football, Alabama and Notre Dame.

This game of course is a rematch of the 2012 BCS National Championship, which Alabama won handily 42-14 and much like that game, Notre Dame finds itself as a prohibitive underdog against the Crimson Tide and it will take the upset of a lifetime for the Fighting Irish to pull this one out.

There was much debate over whether Notre Dame deserved to be in this game after getting torched by Clemson in the ACC title game, but I do think the committee got it right if your criteria is deserving and not just about the best. Notre Dame still has a win over Clemson and a very impressive showing against North Carolina. This has been an elite defensive unit all season long, but it will be challenged in ways that it has not all season.

Alabama has made the playoff six of the seven seasons that it has existed, with last year being the lone exception and Alabama is 4-1 in their five semifinal games, with the lone loss coming to Ohio State in the 2015 Sugar Bowl. Every one of Alabama’s semifinal wins have come by double digits, winning 38-3 over Michigan State in 2015, 24-7 over Washington in 2016, 24-6 over Clemson in 2017 and 45-34 over Oklahoma in 2018.

This Alabama team is one of Nick Saban’s best and a lot of it is due to the offensive skill talent. Alabama is able to boast three of the top five vote getters in the Heisman Trophy race with Devonta Smith and Mac Jones being finalists and Najee Harris finishing fifth. That is an embarrassment of riches and it will be a tough task for the Fighting Irish to slow down the Crimson Tide on New Year’s.

Here is how you can watch the 2021 Rose Bowl:

Date: Friday, Jan 1
Time: 4 p.m ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Dallas, Texas
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN and FuboTV

Keys to Victory

For the Alabama offense, they will need to take advantage of a Notre Dame defense that gives up explosive plays. Notre Dame has a solid defense in a lot of aspects, but their secondary is the shakiest unit on the team.

Alabama has an embarrassment of riches to exploit this weakness, with receivers Devonta Smith and John Metchie III and running back Najee Harris. Mac Jones is one of the most accurate quarterback when throwing deep and look for the Crimson Tide to go deep early and often on the Fighting Irish.

For the Alabama defense, stopping the run is how you stop this Notre Dame offense. Running back Kyren Williams is one of the best backs in the country and Notre Dame boasts one of the best offensive lines in the country and are difficult to stop. Stopping the run and forcing Ian Book to beat you with his arm should be the game-plan for the Alabama defense.

For the Notre Dame offense, they have to find a way to make explosive plays down field in the passing game. The two teams that have given Alabama the most trouble this season, Ole Miss and Florida, have explosive passing attacks that can beat you down the field. Notre Dame must be able to make the Crimson Tide respect their passing game and that will make it easier for them to run the ball and control the clock.

For the Notre Dame defense, they have to  limit the explosive plays by Alabama and force turnovers to give the offense extra possessions. Keeping the ball out of the hands of the best offense in the country is the best way to stop them and I think Notre Dame is going to need 2-3 turnovers to win this football game.

Betting Odds

All odds provided courtesy of The Action Network

Spread: Alabama -20
Total: 65.5

Prediction

Let me start off by saying that I think this Notre Dame team is much better than the one that made the 2012 BCS National Championship Game and this is a really good Fighting Irish team.

I wanted to say that because the narrative is going to set in after this game about how Notre Dame can’t hang with Alabama or Clemson, but the reality is, Notre Dame earned a spot in this game and would fare as good as anyone else that was in consideration for the last playoff spot.

However, this game is going to get ugly.

To beat this Alabama team, you need elite playmakers at the skill positions and a true difference make at the quarterback position and Notre Dame has none of those. Ian Book is a solid quarterback, but he won’t strike fear into the Crimson Tide defense the same way Kyle Trask did in the SEC title game and Notre Dame does not have the weapons that other teams have.

Expect Alabama to strike deep early and often and put the Fighting Irish in a hole that they can’t climb out of and the Crimson Tide make another appearance in the national championship game.

Final Score: Alabama 49, Notre Dame 17