How much does recruiting impact who makes the College Football Playoff?

Evaluating the 2014 College Football Playoff against recruiting figures

Nobody really knew what to expect when the BCS gave way to the College Football Playoff in 2014. Instead of a clear formula for determining the top teams in the country, the task of picking the top four teams was ceded to a selection committee of experts meeting weekly. Defending national champion Florida State ran the table as the only undefeated Power Five team, earning their spot in the semifinals.

The big question in 2014 was for the final spot in the playoff. Ahead of Florida State were Alabama and Oregon, the hegemonic powers of the time in the SEC and Pac-12 respectively. The fourth spot, however, was up for grabs heading into the final weekend. The committee ultimately decided to take Big Ten champion Ohio State ahead of Big 12 co-winners Baylor and TCU.

Looking back at the recruiting averages against the median for each team, it was basically a no-brainer for the committee. At the time, though, without any indication of how the committee would act, the flip in the final rankings felt discordant. The move ultimately paid off for the College Football Playoff, and it set a notable precedent moving forward.

In addition to having one fewer win apiece than Ohio State, both Baylor and TCU recruited at a level nowhere near what the Buckeyes brought to the table. Teams like Georgia, LSU, and USC all recruited at a level that would put them in College Football Playoff contention — if only any of them could have reached the end of the regular season with fewer losses.

Auburn is the only other team on the fringe that didn’t make the field, but that was less a function of recruiting than the fact they had four losses on their record. As 2014 showed, recruiting can inform which teams have a shot at the title, but only if they win enough games to keep themselves in the discussion on Selection Sunday.

That was the case for three other teams that fell within the sweet spot of recruiting prowess. Only Alabama and USC recruited more highly-rated talent than Texas, but a 6-6 campaign in Charlie Strong’s first season relegated the Longhorns to the Texas Bowl against Arkansas. Will Muschamp recruited the fourth-best team in terms of five-year recruiting averages, but couldn’t save his job as Florida limped to a 6-5 regular season record. Notre Dame also lost five games in the regular season, finishing 7-5 before winning the Music City Bowl over LSU.

The selection committee justified Ohio State’s spot in the College Football Playoff with the fact the Buckeyes played a conference championship game and the fact that Baylor and TCU technically tied for the Big 12 title. Looking at the recruiting figures, though, one is left to wonder whether the committee considered the glut of talent on the Buckeyes roster compared to the Bears and Horned Frogs.