How much does recruiting impact who makes the College Football Playoff?

Evaluating the 2017 College Football Playoff against recruiting figures

After 2016 set a new precedent around how the College Football Playoff committee would handle one-loss Power Five teams without a conference championship vis-à-vis two-loss Power Five champions, 2017 set up an even bigger mess for the system. No Power Five team finished undefeated, while UCF ended the regular season as the only FBS team with a perfect record. The Knights, with a recruiting average less than one point above the median, were one of only three Group of Five programs rated above the median; that in itself plays a major role in how schedule strength is perceived for schools outside the Power Five.

With three Power Five champions with only one loss, the first three spots were relatively clear for the committee. Defending national champion Clemson once again won the ACC despite an eyebrow-raising loss at 4-8 Syracuse and earned the benefit of the doubt from two prior trips to the College Football Playoff. Those two prior trips helped boost recruiting averages beyond the seven-point threshold from the median, as Dabo Swinney’s program started to consolidate its dynastic hold on the ACC.

Oklahoma and Georgia were relatively equivalent in terms of how the committee perceived both teams. The Bulldogs had the more talented roster according to recruiting averages, but they also lost by 23 points to SEC West champion Auburn on the road. Oklahoma’s loss came at home against a 7-5 Iowa State team, but by only a touchdown. Georgia had the chance to avenge its defeat, and capitalized with a three-touchdown win over the Tigers for the SEC title.

This time the precedent set a year earlier with Ohio State opened the door for a team that failed to top its own division in the regular season.

Alabama found itself lumped in among an 11-2 Ohio State team that dealt 12-1 Wisconsin its first loss of the season to claim the Big Ten in the quest for the final spot. The Buckeyes hoped that a conference championship would seal their spot against Clemson in the semifinals, but once again the number of defeats trumped the league crown.

Ohio State did finish ahead of the Badgers team it beat head-to-head in Indianapolis. With 11 wins on their record, the Buckeyes hoped that the combination of one of the country’s most talented rosters, perennial name-brand recognition on a national scale, and the Big Ten championship would be enough to land them a spot in the semifinals for the second straight year.

Even with Ohio State’s impressive recruiting record relative to the median, Alabama’s superior talent also helped win its case. That their only loss came not to the SEC champion but the losing finalist, and that the final score showed a double-digit defeat, was not enough to keep the Crimson Tide out of the College Football Playoff. Nick Saban’s crew slotted into the No. 4 spot ahead of an Ohio State team whose players rated on average nearly two points lower than the crimson-clad crew in Tuscaloosa — and more than eight points ahead of No. 6 Wisconsin, which would have likely been the first team to make the Playoff with a five-year recruiting average lower than three points above the median had they defeated Ohio State in the Big Ten championship.

2017 is notable as well for the consolidation of the field. In the first two years of the College Football Playoff, nine teams recruited players who rated on average at least eight points above the median. In 2016 that number dropped to only seven teams. By 2017, only a half-dozen teams recruited at least eight points above the median. Georgia and Alabama, two of the six whose recruiting average topped that eight-point threshold, matched up for the national championship.

Ohio State barely missed the cut behind the Crimson Tide. After losses against ranked Washington State and Notre Dame teams, Pac-12 champion was afforded even less credibility as an 11-2 Power Five champion despite a five-year recruiting average more than nine points above median. LSU, the only other team in that quintet, finished third behind Alabama and Auburn in the SEC West.