How much does recruiting impact who makes the College Football Playoff?

Evaluating the 2018 College Football Playoff against recruiting figures

Like every other mythical national championship claim, the four teams that make the College Football Playoff cannot afford to have too many losses on their record. But by 2018, recruiting starts to have an even greater significance in providing a window into which teams make the field and which do not. Wins remain the primary marker for the selection committee, but recruiting thresholds more clearly start to delineate those with a chance from those without a shot at the title before the season even starts.

For the first time in College Football Playoff history, all four semifinal participants boasted five-year recruiting averages that rated at least six points higher than the rolling median. While only six teams ranked more than eight points above the median, Clemson proved in winning its second championship in three years that teams could bolster their rating relative to the field. The Tigers fell just below that eight-point mark, with a team who ranked on average 7.97 points higher than the median five-year recruiting ranking.

Unlike the prior year, four teams finished undefeated. One was UCF, once again snubbed by the committee despite a 25-game winning streak. The other three all made the semifinals. The lasting hold of the Notre Dame brand allowed the Fighting Irish to snatch the No. 3 seed, while the final spot came down to a debate between a pair of one-loss Power Five champions and the losing finalist from 2017 with two defeats on its record.

Had Georgia defeated Alabama in the SEC championship game, the committee might once again have put both teams in the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs finished at No. 5 in the final rankings for 2018, ahead of an Ohio State team that both a) had one fewer loss than Georgia and b) a roster that was graded on average one point higher than the recruiting haul in Athens. But the fact that Ohio State’s lone loss came on the road by 29 points against a .500 Purdue team was too much for the committee to countenance.

Instead it was Oklahoma, with a lower recruiting profile than their counterparts at Georgia and Ohio State, that was gifted the final spot to serve as cannon fodder for Alabama. The Sooners had the benefit of one fewer defeat than Georgia, and their loss was by three points on neutral turf to rival Texas.

The only other team with a recruiting average in line with previous College Football Playoff qualifiers was LSU, which suffered its third defeat of the season in a 74-72 overtime thriller against Texas A&M. With three losses on their record, the Bayou Bengals eliminated themselves from contention — but even had they toppled the Aggies, precedent points to LSU falling short just as Georgia did in the end.

Just as in 2017, consolidation of power meant that only six teams crossed the nine-point mark in terms of their five-year recruiting averages against the median. Clemson barely missed the cut as a seventh team. It was a trend that would only become more start over the next few years.