AAC Football: 2021 is most important year ever for conference

The 2021 AAC football schedule gives the conference a great chance to prove it belongs amongst the Power Five. This year is critical.

The American Athletic Conference has a high opinion of itself, and justifiably so.

Built from the ashes of the Big East, the AAC raided Conference-USA to take eight members: UCF, USF, SMU, East Carolina, Memphis, Tulsa, Houston and Tulane, along with Navy from the independents to form a new Group of Five power.

Since it’s inception in 2013, the AAC has been that power they hoped to become. The conference has produced six New Year’s Six teams and one claimed national champion, UCF (the Knights won the championship in the Colley Matrix, which is officially recognized by the NCAA) in 2017.

In just a few years, the AAC has become the strongest member of the Group of Five. The conference presents itself as a member of the Power Six as it views itself among the big boys of college football. For some, it’s justified. The stats are there, the wins are there and the quality of football is there. For others, basically anyone who isn’t a conference representative, coach, athlete, or fan it’s just a silly branding that makes the conference sound and feel bigger than it is.

The loss of UConn could easily be viewed as addition by subtraction. They didn’t add much, especially in recent years, and that takes away what had become one of the most winnable games on the schedule. There aren’t divisions anymore, but there’s still a conference title game, similar to the Big 12.

In 2021, the conference is poised to make what could be its biggest jump yet.

The recent announcement of the 2021 AAC schedule featured a plethora of big games, especially outside the conference. Of course, this is all pending on how the COVID-19 pandemic plays out.

UCF, who’s been the class of the conference for the majority of its existence made one of the best coaching hires in the nation with former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn. An already great program looks ready to make the jump and 2021 could get off to a great start under Malzahn. The Knights open the season at home against the original BCS/New Year’s Six buster, Boise State in what is the biggest non-conference Group of Five matchup of the season. They also travel to a Louisville team that is looking to rebound from its second bad season in three years.

Cincinnati overtook UCF in 2020 and are poised for yet another big season. It won’t get much bigger than an Oct. 5 date at Notre Dame Stadium against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame was a playoff team last year and a win for the Bearcats would skyrocket them in the rankings. Don’t sleep on a big matchup at surprising Indiana, lead by returning Heisman darkhorse Michael Penix Jr.

SMU could make some noise, but if the defense doesn’t improve, they’ll need to win a lot of shootouts. The Mustangs have the offense to do that and they’ll take that strength to face off with TCU.  This is a game that SMU might need to win with an extremely backloaded conference schedule awaiting.

Houston and Memphis have both had their time in the sun, but look to rebound from average seasons last year. Houston faces Texas Tech while Memphis hosts an unpredictable Mississippi State team.

There are quite a few other big games, too: USF’s been disappointing for the better part of three years, but they can make a statement against NC State and perhaps the most important game they’ll play all year against in-state game against a likely top 15 Florida Gators team. Tulane hosts Oklahoma and a quality UAB team in addition to traveling to an explosive Ole Miss. Tulsa faces off with Oklahoma State and Ohio State. After a strong finish to 2020, East Carolina looks to continue building in its openers against App State and South Carolina.

There will be some bumps and bruises from some of these games (looking at you, Tulane/Oklahoma) but there are plenty of winnable games on this schedule. Even games where blowouts are expected like that Tulane/Oklahoma matchup or Tulsa/Ohio State, even close games would do wonders to change perception of those teams. Sometimes, your conference is only as strong as the weakest link. Improvements at the bottom will do nothing but benefit the top.

All of that doesn’t even include conference play. Among the highlights:

Cincinnati hosts UCF and SMU. Houston faces off with Memphis. SMU plays Tulane in a rematch of an overtime thriller last year.

SMU’s aforementioned backloaded schedule cannot be understated. They have the talent to win the conference, but must navigate a brutal five game stretch: Tulane. At Houston, at Memphis, UCF and Cincinnati. If the Mustangs make it out of that gauntlet with just one loss, they’ll be in solid contention for a New Year’s Six bid.

Of course, UCF and Cincinnati are the other two contenders for that spot. Don’t sleep on Memphis. Their strong recruiting and missing Cincinnati on the schedule will place them as a solid underdog.

The ACC has already shown it can hang with — and beat — the big teams in the eyes of many. As for people that roll their eyes at the mere suggestion that the conference is among the elite, 2021 is the premier chance to prove the critics wrong.